Critical Infrastructure Defense Against Aerial Swarms Under Sensing Uncertainty: Online Allocation With Finite-Time Guarantees
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866910260497743872 |
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| author | Pandey, Shriya Muniraj, Devaprakash |
| author_facet | Pandey, Shriya Muniraj, Devaprakash |
| contents | This article presents a closed-loop, uncertainty-aware framework for defending a protected zone against coordinated incursions by swarms of small uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS). The interaction structure of the attackers is modeled as time-varying, while defenders operate under imperfect sensing. The proposed criticality-driven defender-to-attacker assignment strategy integrates three components: a probabilistic graph-based representation of the attacking swarm inferred from uncertain observations; a risk-aware attacker criticality model combining time-to-breach urgency with uncertainty; an online defender allocation mechanism that assigns and selectively reassigns defenders while limiting switching-induced instability through robust execution constraints. Analytical guarantees are established within a filtration-based first-hitting-time framework. In particular, finite-time triggering of the first capture event following detection is proven, and explicit mixed linear-geometric upper bounds are derived for the expected neutralization time. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, achieving 85.6% neutralization efficiency under probabilistic sensing and 99.9% under deterministic sensing. Systematic ablation and sensitivity studies further quantify how detection thresholds and coordination parameters influence reliability and time-to-first-capture. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_26838 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Critical Infrastructure Defense Against Aerial Swarms Under Sensing Uncertainty: Online Allocation With Finite-Time Guarantees Pandey, Shriya Muniraj, Devaprakash Systems and Control This article presents a closed-loop, uncertainty-aware framework for defending a protected zone against coordinated incursions by swarms of small uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS). The interaction structure of the attackers is modeled as time-varying, while defenders operate under imperfect sensing. The proposed criticality-driven defender-to-attacker assignment strategy integrates three components: a probabilistic graph-based representation of the attacking swarm inferred from uncertain observations; a risk-aware attacker criticality model combining time-to-breach urgency with uncertainty; an online defender allocation mechanism that assigns and selectively reassigns defenders while limiting switching-induced instability through robust execution constraints. Analytical guarantees are established within a filtration-based first-hitting-time framework. In particular, finite-time triggering of the first capture event following detection is proven, and explicit mixed linear-geometric upper bounds are derived for the expected neutralization time. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, achieving 85.6% neutralization efficiency under probabilistic sensing and 99.9% under deterministic sensing. Systematic ablation and sensitivity studies further quantify how detection thresholds and coordination parameters influence reliability and time-to-first-capture. |
| title | Critical Infrastructure Defense Against Aerial Swarms Under Sensing Uncertainty: Online Allocation With Finite-Time Guarantees |
| topic | Systems and Control |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26838 |