Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Fragility: AI Labor Substitution and the Erosion of Sustainable Capability
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866913164692553728 |
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| author | Rohde, Wolfgang |
| author_facet | Rohde, Wolfgang |
| contents | What looks like acceleration can be a quiet transfer of burden from the present to the future. Attempts to replace human labor with AI systems are often presented as rational responses to technological progress, but that view is often structurally short-sighted. Across software development and adjacent knowledge industries, AI is increasingly attractive because it appears to reduce labor costs, speed output, and improve short-term metrics. Yet those gains may be achieved by drawing down human capabilities that are slow to build and difficult to restore. This paper develops a mechanism of capability masking and capability erosion under AI labor substitution. AI-generated output can create the appearance that organizational capability has been replaced, even when dependence on skilled human labor remains. That appearance can support hiring restraint while slower costs accumulate in the background. Evidence from AI-assisted coding shows that generated output still requires substantial human verification and remains uneven in correctness, maintainability, and security. Repository-level studies also suggest limits in handling broader codebase context. More broadly, labor-market, political-economy, and industrial-strategy evidence suggests that substitution pressures are being driven by managerial cost incentives and national competition while increasing risks of concentration and platform control. The result is a system that may look more efficient in the short term while becoming more fragile over time. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_27399 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Fragility: AI Labor Substitution and the Erosion of Sustainable Capability Rohde, Wolfgang Computers and Society Artificial Intelligence K.4.m; I.2.m; J.4 What looks like acceleration can be a quiet transfer of burden from the present to the future. Attempts to replace human labor with AI systems are often presented as rational responses to technological progress, but that view is often structurally short-sighted. Across software development and adjacent knowledge industries, AI is increasingly attractive because it appears to reduce labor costs, speed output, and improve short-term metrics. Yet those gains may be achieved by drawing down human capabilities that are slow to build and difficult to restore. This paper develops a mechanism of capability masking and capability erosion under AI labor substitution. AI-generated output can create the appearance that organizational capability has been replaced, even when dependence on skilled human labor remains. That appearance can support hiring restraint while slower costs accumulate in the background. Evidence from AI-assisted coding shows that generated output still requires substantial human verification and remains uneven in correctness, maintainability, and security. Repository-level studies also suggest limits in handling broader codebase context. More broadly, labor-market, political-economy, and industrial-strategy evidence suggests that substitution pressures are being driven by managerial cost incentives and national competition while increasing risks of concentration and platform control. The result is a system that may look more efficient in the short term while becoming more fragile over time. |
| title | Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Fragility: AI Labor Substitution and the Erosion of Sustainable Capability |
| topic | Computers and Society Artificial Intelligence K.4.m; I.2.m; J.4 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.27399 |