Probabilistic Data-Driven Modelling of Astrophysical Transients: The Neural Process Family for Ultrafast and Class-Agnostic Light Curve Reconstruction with NightLANP
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866914622712315904 |
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| author | Chaini, Siddharth Bianco, Federica B. Mahabal, Ashish |
| author_facet | Chaini, Siddharth Bianco, Federica B. Mahabal, Ashish |
| contents | Astrophysical observations from Earth are subject to weather, environmental, and scientific constraints that lead to sparse, irregular light curves. On the eve of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, its dataset offers unprecedented opportunities for transient science. Yet a key challenge remains its cadence, sparse and irregular across six bands, limiting inference. Interpolation helps mitigate this, with Gaussian Processes the standard, but they struggle with cross-band correlations, require a priori kernel specification, and must be fit to each light curve individually, hence scaling poorly. Here, we introduce the neural process family for light curve reconstruction, combining the probabilistic framework of Gaussian Processes with the scalability of deep learning. By meta-learning on diverse simulated transients, Attentive Neural Processes shift the bulk of computation to training, enabling rapid, amortized inference with a class-agnostic model. Evaluated on realistic Rubin cadences across 15 transient classes, we show that even an unoptimized, out-of-the-box Attentive Neural Process consistently outperforms all benchmarks -- a suite of Gaussian Processes and neural networks -- on every tested metric, spanning regression quality, astrophysical feature recovery, and probabilistic calibration. Our model interpolates all bands simultaneously in microseconds, over four orders of magnitude faster than the next-best neural benchmark and five faster than Gaussian Processes, demonstrating the potential of neural processes for the nightly Rubin alert stream. Attentive Neural Processes avoid the overconfidence of standard neural networks and the underconfidence of Gaussian Processes, delivering sharp, well-calibrated uncertainties. This work establishes the neural process family as a scalable, probabilistic foundation for real-time transient science in the Rubin era. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_27527 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Probabilistic Data-Driven Modelling of Astrophysical Transients: The Neural Process Family for Ultrafast and Class-Agnostic Light Curve Reconstruction with NightLANP Chaini, Siddharth Bianco, Federica B. Mahabal, Ashish Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Machine Learning Astrophysical observations from Earth are subject to weather, environmental, and scientific constraints that lead to sparse, irregular light curves. On the eve of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, its dataset offers unprecedented opportunities for transient science. Yet a key challenge remains its cadence, sparse and irregular across six bands, limiting inference. Interpolation helps mitigate this, with Gaussian Processes the standard, but they struggle with cross-band correlations, require a priori kernel specification, and must be fit to each light curve individually, hence scaling poorly. Here, we introduce the neural process family for light curve reconstruction, combining the probabilistic framework of Gaussian Processes with the scalability of deep learning. By meta-learning on diverse simulated transients, Attentive Neural Processes shift the bulk of computation to training, enabling rapid, amortized inference with a class-agnostic model. Evaluated on realistic Rubin cadences across 15 transient classes, we show that even an unoptimized, out-of-the-box Attentive Neural Process consistently outperforms all benchmarks -- a suite of Gaussian Processes and neural networks -- on every tested metric, spanning regression quality, astrophysical feature recovery, and probabilistic calibration. Our model interpolates all bands simultaneously in microseconds, over four orders of magnitude faster than the next-best neural benchmark and five faster than Gaussian Processes, demonstrating the potential of neural processes for the nightly Rubin alert stream. Attentive Neural Processes avoid the overconfidence of standard neural networks and the underconfidence of Gaussian Processes, delivering sharp, well-calibrated uncertainties. This work establishes the neural process family as a scalable, probabilistic foundation for real-time transient science in the Rubin era. |
| title | Probabilistic Data-Driven Modelling of Astrophysical Transients: The Neural Process Family for Ultrafast and Class-Agnostic Light Curve Reconstruction with NightLANP |
| topic | Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.27527 |