Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | Dai, Hui, Teehan, Ryan, Torabian, Parsa, Ren, Mengye |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Similar Items
Are LLMs Prescient? A Continuous Evaluation using Daily News as the Oracle
by: Dai, Hui, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Dai, Hui, et al.
Published: (2024)
Context Tuning for In-Context Optimization
by: Lu, Jack, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Lu, Jack, et al.
Published: (2025)
CoLLEGe: Concept Embedding Generation for Large Language Models
by: Teehan, Ryan, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Teehan, Ryan, et al.
Published: (2024)
Align Once, Benefit Multilingually: Enforcing Multilingual Consistency for LLM Safety Alignment
by: Bu, Yuyan, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Bu, Yuyan, et al.
Published: (2026)
Are the Values of LLMs Structurally Aligned with Humans? A Causal Perspective
by: Kang, Yipeng, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Kang, Yipeng, et al.
Published: (2024)
The Alignment Tax: Response Homogenization in Aligned LLMs and Its Implications for Uncertainty Estimation
by: Liu, Mingyi
Published: (2026)
by: Liu, Mingyi
Published: (2026)
An Assessment of Human vs. Model Uncertainty in Soft-Label Learning and Calibration
by: Pavlovic, Maja, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Pavlovic, Maja, et al.
Published: (2026)
Calibration Collapse Under Sycophancy Fine-Tuning: How Reward Hacking Breaks Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs
by: Sahoo, Subramanyam
Published: (2026)
by: Sahoo, Subramanyam
Published: (2026)
Calibration Across Layers: Understanding Calibration Evolution in LLMs
by: Joshi, Abhinav, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Joshi, Abhinav, et al.
Published: (2025)
When Does Verification Pay Off? A Closer Look at LLMs as Solution Verifiers
by: Lu, Jack, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Lu, Jack, et al.
Published: (2025)
GradAlign: Gradient-Aligned Data Selection for LLM Reinforcement Learning
by: Yang, Ningyuan, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Yang, Ningyuan, et al.
Published: (2026)
Revisiting Uncertainty Estimation and Calibration of Large Language Models
by: Tao, Linwei, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Tao, Linwei, et al.
Published: (2025)
Uncertainty in Language Models: Assessment through Rank-Calibration
by: Huang, Xinmeng, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Huang, Xinmeng, et al.
Published: (2024)
On Subjective Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration in Natural Language Generation
by: Wang, Ziyu, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Wang, Ziyu, et al.
Published: (2024)
BOND: Aligning LLMs with Best-of-N Distillation
by: Sessa, Pier Giuseppe, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Sessa, Pier Giuseppe, et al.
Published: (2024)
Introspective Planning: Aligning Robots' Uncertainty with Inherent Task Ambiguity
by: Liang, Kaiqu, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Liang, Kaiqu, et al.
Published: (2024)
Forecasting Time Series with LLMs via Patch-Based Prompting and Decomposition
by: Bumb, Mayank, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Bumb, Mayank, et al.
Published: (2025)
Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Forecasting Against Expert Forecasters
by: Lu, Janna
Published: (2025)
by: Lu, Janna
Published: (2025)
Probing Scientific General Intelligence of LLMs with Scientist-Aligned Workflows
by: Xu, Wanghan, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Xu, Wanghan, et al.
Published: (2025)
Aligned at the Start: Conceptual Groupings in LLM Embeddings
by: Khatir, Mehrdad, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Khatir, Mehrdad, et al.
Published: (2024)
LLMs Should Express Uncertainty Explicitly
by: Guo, Junyu, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Guo, Junyu, et al.
Published: (2026)
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy
by: Schoenegger, Philipp, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Schoenegger, Philipp, et al.
Published: (2024)
DENIAHL: In-Context Features Influence LLM Needle-In-A-Haystack Abilities
by: Dai, Hui, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Dai, Hui, et al.
Published: (2024)
Catching rationalization in the act: detecting motivated reasoning before and after CoT via activation probing
by: Mirtaheri, Parsa, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Mirtaheri, Parsa, et al.
Published: (2026)
Aligning Human and Machine Attention for Enhanced Supervised Learning
by: Chriqui, Avihay, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Chriqui, Avihay, et al.
Published: (2025)
Multi-Agent Reasoning with Consistency Verification Improves Uncertainty Calibration in Medical MCQA
by: Martinez, John Ray B.
Published: (2026)
by: Martinez, John Ray B.
Published: (2026)
Enhancing Trust in Large Language Models via Uncertainty-Calibrated Fine-Tuning
by: Krishnan, Ranganath, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Krishnan, Ranganath, et al.
Published: (2024)
A General Framework for Inference-time Scaling and Steering of Diffusion Models
by: Singhal, Raghav, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Singhal, Raghav, et al.
Published: (2025)
Aligning Frozen LLMs by Reinforcement Learning: An Iterative Reweight-then-Optimize Approach
by: Zhang, Xinnan, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Zhang, Xinnan, et al.
Published: (2025)
H3Fusion: Helpful, Harmless, Honest Fusion of Aligned LLMs
by: Tekin, Selim Furkan, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Tekin, Selim Furkan, et al.
Published: (2024)
Population-Aligned Persona Generation for LLM-based Social Simulation
by: Hu, Zhengyu, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Hu, Zhengyu, et al.
Published: (2025)
Outliers and Calibration Sets have Diminishing Effect on Quantization of Modern LLMs
by: Paglieri, Davide, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Paglieri, Davide, et al.
Published: (2024)
Calibrating LLMs for Text-to-SQL Parsing by Leveraging Sub-clause Frequencies
by: Liu, Terrance, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Liu, Terrance, et al.
Published: (2025)
Matryoshka Pilot: Learning to Drive Black-Box LLMs with LLMs
by: Li, Changhao, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Li, Changhao, et al.
Published: (2024)
Keeping LLMs Aligned After Fine-tuning: The Crucial Role of Prompt Templates
by: Lyu, Kaifeng, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Lyu, Kaifeng, et al.
Published: (2024)
Evaluating the Relevance of Uncertainty Estimators for LLM Hallucination
by: Agnimo, Yedidia, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Agnimo, Yedidia, et al.
Published: (2026)
Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotations
by: Wang, Peiyi, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Wang, Peiyi, et al.
Published: (2023)
Perceptions of Linguistic Uncertainty by Language Models and Humans
by: Belem, Catarina G, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Belem, Catarina G, et al.
Published: (2024)
Beyond Labels: Aligning Large Language Models with Human-like Reasoning
by: Kabir, Muhammad Rafsan, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Kabir, Muhammad Rafsan, et al.
Published: (2024)
Balcony: A Lightweight Approach to Dynamic Inference of Generative Language Models
by: Jamialahmadi, Benyamin, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Jamialahmadi, Benyamin, et al.
Published: (2025)
Similar Items
-
Are LLMs Prescient? A Continuous Evaluation using Daily News as the Oracle
by: Dai, Hui, et al.
Published: (2024) -
Context Tuning for In-Context Optimization
by: Lu, Jack, et al.
Published: (2025) -
CoLLEGe: Concept Embedding Generation for Large Language Models
by: Teehan, Ryan, et al.
Published: (2024) -
Align Once, Benefit Multilingually: Enforcing Multilingual Consistency for LLM Safety Alignment
by: Bu, Yuyan, et al.
Published: (2026) -
Are the Values of LLMs Structurally Aligned with Humans? A Causal Perspective
by: Kang, Yipeng, et al.
Published: (2024)