Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictions
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866913168264003584 |
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| author | Tenzer, Yaniv Tolochinsky, Elad Romano, Yaniv |
| author_facet | Tenzer, Yaniv Tolochinsky, Elad Romano, Yaniv |
| contents | We introduce a testing-by-betting framework that leverages predictions on unlabeled data to enhance the power of sequential hypothesis testing. Given limited samples from the joint distribution of $(X,Y)$, and additional unlabeled samples from the marginal of $X$, we ask how unlabeled data can be used to hypothesize about the distribution of $Y$, and the conditional distribution of $Y\mid X$. We introduce an e-statistic and use it to construct a sequential test. Under standard distributional assumptions -- label shift or concept shift -- we establish that the test is anytime valid. Furthermore, we show that for binary data, the e-statistic has non-trivial power. Crucially, our approach retains these properties even when the underlying predictions are inaccurate. Through simulations and applications to large language models evaluation, we demonstrate power gains over baseline approaches, including prediction-powered inference. These gains persist even with relatively limited unlabeled data and when predictions have low accuracy due to weak correlation between $X$ and $Y$. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_28533 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictions Tenzer, Yaniv Tolochinsky, Elad Romano, Yaniv Machine Learning We introduce a testing-by-betting framework that leverages predictions on unlabeled data to enhance the power of sequential hypothesis testing. Given limited samples from the joint distribution of $(X,Y)$, and additional unlabeled samples from the marginal of $X$, we ask how unlabeled data can be used to hypothesize about the distribution of $Y$, and the conditional distribution of $Y\mid X$. We introduce an e-statistic and use it to construct a sequential test. Under standard distributional assumptions -- label shift or concept shift -- we establish that the test is anytime valid. Furthermore, we show that for binary data, the e-statistic has non-trivial power. Crucially, our approach retains these properties even when the underlying predictions are inaccurate. Through simulations and applications to large language models evaluation, we demonstrate power gains over baseline approaches, including prediction-powered inference. These gains persist even with relatively limited unlabeled data and when predictions have low accuracy due to weak correlation between $X$ and $Y$. |
| title | Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictions |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28533 |