Ensemble Score Filtering for Real-Data Energy Consumption Forecast Correction
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866916073698230272 |
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| author | Hu, Ruoyu Yu, Dahai Bao, Feng Wang, Guang Zhang, Guannan |
| author_facet | Hu, Ruoyu Yu, Dahai Bao, Feng Wang, Guang Zhang, Guannan |
| contents | Accurate estimation and forecasting of energy consumption are important for power-system operation, planning, and demand-side management. In practice, however, complete and timely measurements may not always be available, and the observed data can be partial, noisy, or delayed. This motivates the use of learned forecasting models for predicting the evolving consumption state, together with data assimilation methods for sequential forecast correction. In this work, we study a high-dimensional data assimilation problem for real energy-consumption data. \modeltext{The forward prediction is supplied by a pretrained black-box spatio-temporal forecasting model, which is treated as the state propagator in the filtering procedure.} We employ the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) to assimilate partial and noisy observations and to correct the forecast trajectory over time. The EnSF uses score-based diffusion models to approximate filtering distributions and avoids retraining neural-network score models during assimilation by using a closed-form score representation and Monte Carlo approximation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that open-loop propagation of the learned forecasting model can become unreliable over long horizons, while EnSF-based correction substantially improves state estimation. Comparisons with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) further show that EnSF provides stronger correction under the nonlinear observation setting considered in this work. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_29072 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Ensemble Score Filtering for Real-Data Energy Consumption Forecast Correction Hu, Ruoyu Yu, Dahai Bao, Feng Wang, Guang Zhang, Guannan Machine Learning Numerical Analysis Accurate estimation and forecasting of energy consumption are important for power-system operation, planning, and demand-side management. In practice, however, complete and timely measurements may not always be available, and the observed data can be partial, noisy, or delayed. This motivates the use of learned forecasting models for predicting the evolving consumption state, together with data assimilation methods for sequential forecast correction. In this work, we study a high-dimensional data assimilation problem for real energy-consumption data. \modeltext{The forward prediction is supplied by a pretrained black-box spatio-temporal forecasting model, which is treated as the state propagator in the filtering procedure.} We employ the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) to assimilate partial and noisy observations and to correct the forecast trajectory over time. The EnSF uses score-based diffusion models to approximate filtering distributions and avoids retraining neural-network score models during assimilation by using a closed-form score representation and Monte Carlo approximation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that open-loop propagation of the learned forecasting model can become unreliable over long horizons, while EnSF-based correction substantially improves state estimation. Comparisons with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) further show that EnSF provides stronger correction under the nonlinear observation setting considered in this work. |
| title | Ensemble Score Filtering for Real-Data Energy Consumption Forecast Correction |
| topic | Machine Learning Numerical Analysis |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29072 |