A Note on QPE Timing: False Alarms in O-C
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866917542955581440 |
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| author | Zhou, Cong Zhang, Zirui Pan, Zhen Zhao, Wen |
| author_facet | Zhou, Cong Zhang, Zirui Pan, Zhen Zhao, Wen |
| contents | O-C timing analysis is a useful diagnostic tool for quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs), but their interpretation depends sensitively on the integer cycle number assigned to each eruption. In this note, we show that even a small mismatch in the cycle number, $N_{\rm cyc}$, can produce large false signals in O-C diagrams, and \emph{a universal feature of these false signals is a large in-phase sinusoidal modulation between even and odd eruptions.} Therefore, uncertainties in $N_{\rm cyc}$ must be inferred or marginalized over before physical interpretations are attached to O-C. We then apply both O-C and EMRI+disk to GSN 069 and eRO-QPE2. For GSN 069, the timing data favor an anti-phase modulation in even and odd eruptions, consistent with apsidal precession in a low-eccetricity EMRI crossing an equatorial disk. For eRO-QPE2, the data are well described by a near-circular EMRI and a precessing disk. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_29382 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Note on QPE Timing: False Alarms in O-C Zhou, Cong Zhang, Zirui Pan, Zhen Zhao, Wen High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena O-C timing analysis is a useful diagnostic tool for quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs), but their interpretation depends sensitively on the integer cycle number assigned to each eruption. In this note, we show that even a small mismatch in the cycle number, $N_{\rm cyc}$, can produce large false signals in O-C diagrams, and \emph{a universal feature of these false signals is a large in-phase sinusoidal modulation between even and odd eruptions.} Therefore, uncertainties in $N_{\rm cyc}$ must be inferred or marginalized over before physical interpretations are attached to O-C. We then apply both O-C and EMRI+disk to GSN 069 and eRO-QPE2. For GSN 069, the timing data favor an anti-phase modulation in even and odd eruptions, consistent with apsidal precession in a low-eccetricity EMRI crossing an equatorial disk. For eRO-QPE2, the data are well described by a near-circular EMRI and a precessing disk. |
| title | A Note on QPE Timing: False Alarms in O-C |
| topic | High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29382 |