Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting with Rectified Flow Transformers
Fuente:
arXiv
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | |
| Etiquetas: |
Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
|
| _version_ | 1866911732044136448 |
|---|---|
| author | Schusterbauer, Johannes Wiese, Jannik Stracke, Nick Phan, Timy Ommer, Björn |
| author_facet | Schusterbauer, Johannes Wiese, Jannik Stracke, Nick Phan, Timy Ommer, Björn |
| contents | Accurate weather forecasts are essential across various domains and are safety-critical in extreme weather conditions. Compared to simulation-based forecasting, data-driven approaches show greater efficiency, enabling short-term, high-resolution nowcasting. In particular, diffusion models proved effective in weather nowcasting due to their strong probabilistic foundation. However, existing methods rely on deterministic compression to reduce the complexity of high-dimensional weather data, limiting their ability to capture uncertainty in the decoding process. In this work, we introduce $\textbf{FREUD}$, a $\textbf{Fr}$ame-wise $\textbf{E}$ncoder and $\textbf{U}$nited $\textbf{D}$ecoder model based on rectified flow transformers for efficient compression of spatio-temporal weather data. Frame-wise encoding enables continuous forecast updates, while the unified video decoder ensures temporal consistency. Our uncertainty-preserving first stage allows us to capture aleatoric uncertainty via ensembling, which is particularly beneficial for extreme weather events with high decoding variability. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in precipitation nowcasting with a compact latent-space rectified flow transformer on the SEVIR benchmark and show further performance gains by model and test-time scaling. Code available here: https://github.com/CompVis/weather-rf |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_31204 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting with Rectified Flow Transformers Schusterbauer, Johannes Wiese, Jannik Stracke, Nick Phan, Timy Ommer, Björn Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition Accurate weather forecasts are essential across various domains and are safety-critical in extreme weather conditions. Compared to simulation-based forecasting, data-driven approaches show greater efficiency, enabling short-term, high-resolution nowcasting. In particular, diffusion models proved effective in weather nowcasting due to their strong probabilistic foundation. However, existing methods rely on deterministic compression to reduce the complexity of high-dimensional weather data, limiting their ability to capture uncertainty in the decoding process. In this work, we introduce $\textbf{FREUD}$, a $\textbf{Fr}$ame-wise $\textbf{E}$ncoder and $\textbf{U}$nited $\textbf{D}$ecoder model based on rectified flow transformers for efficient compression of spatio-temporal weather data. Frame-wise encoding enables continuous forecast updates, while the unified video decoder ensures temporal consistency. Our uncertainty-preserving first stage allows us to capture aleatoric uncertainty via ensembling, which is particularly beneficial for extreme weather events with high decoding variability. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in precipitation nowcasting with a compact latent-space rectified flow transformer on the SEVIR benchmark and show further performance gains by model and test-time scaling. Code available here: https://github.com/CompVis/weather-rf |
| title | Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting with Rectified Flow Transformers |
| topic | Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.31204 |