Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.31257 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Table of Contents:
- Fraud detection in payment networks relies on labels generated through heterogeneous and imperfect observation processes, yet existing approaches treat fraud as a homogeneous binary variable. We show that this assumption is structurally incorrect and leads to provable inefficiency. We introduce an observation-mechanism taxonomy that partitions fraud into five classes, each defined by a distinct censorship and labeling pipeline. We prove that estimating fraud rates separately by class and aggregating strictly dominates pooled estimation, with the efficiency gap characterized as a Jensen penalty arising from heterogeneous observation rates. For each class, we derive the binding theoretical constraint on detection, including endogenous label corruption, structural non-observability, and feature non-informativeness. These results establish that fraud detection is fundamentally a collection of distinct estimation problems, each governed by its own observation structure and detection limit.