A Dynamic Latent Space Model for Healthcare Mobility Networks: the Italian National Health Service case
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| author | Manente, Cecilia Alfò, Marco D'Angelo, Silvia |
| author_facet | Manente, Cecilia Alfò, Marco D'Angelo, Silvia |
| contents | Healthcare mobility -- patients seeking treatment outside their territory of residence -- represents a major source of inequality and financial imbalance in decentralised health systems. In Italy, persistent north-south asymmetries in patient flows among Local Health Authorities (ASLs) have reinforced existing disparities within the National Health Service; yet the structural organisation and temporal dynamics of these flows remain poorly understood at the sub-regional level. We propose a Bayesian dynamic latent space model for directed weighted networks with a hurdle negative binomial likelihood, and apply it to administrative discharge records on mobility for hip replacement procedures among 109 Italian ASLs over 2018-2024. The model jointly addresses excess zeros, overdispersion and network dependence, while capturing directional heterogeneity through multiplicative sender and receiver effects and controlling for differences in territorial size via an appropriate exposure term. Applied to Italian mobility data, the model reveals the evolving geometry of the healthcare system, quantifies the disruption induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, and uncovers structural asymmetries in outward propensity and ASLs attractiveness. The framework provides a flexible tool for the statistical analysis of dynamic healthcare mobility networks with direct relevance to the monitoring and evaluation of territorial healthcare provision. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_31394 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Dynamic Latent Space Model for Healthcare Mobility Networks: the Italian National Health Service case Manente, Cecilia Alfò, Marco D'Angelo, Silvia Methodology Applications Healthcare mobility -- patients seeking treatment outside their territory of residence -- represents a major source of inequality and financial imbalance in decentralised health systems. In Italy, persistent north-south asymmetries in patient flows among Local Health Authorities (ASLs) have reinforced existing disparities within the National Health Service; yet the structural organisation and temporal dynamics of these flows remain poorly understood at the sub-regional level. We propose a Bayesian dynamic latent space model for directed weighted networks with a hurdle negative binomial likelihood, and apply it to administrative discharge records on mobility for hip replacement procedures among 109 Italian ASLs over 2018-2024. The model jointly addresses excess zeros, overdispersion and network dependence, while capturing directional heterogeneity through multiplicative sender and receiver effects and controlling for differences in territorial size via an appropriate exposure term. Applied to Italian mobility data, the model reveals the evolving geometry of the healthcare system, quantifies the disruption induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, and uncovers structural asymmetries in outward propensity and ASLs attractiveness. The framework provides a flexible tool for the statistical analysis of dynamic healthcare mobility networks with direct relevance to the monitoring and evaluation of territorial healthcare provision. |
| title | A Dynamic Latent Space Model for Healthcare Mobility Networks: the Italian National Health Service case |
| topic | Methodology Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.31394 |