How geometry of subduction zones correlates with earthquake dynamics
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866918535345733632 |
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| author | Chau, Oscar Y. L. Bendick, Rebecca Choi, Gary P. T. Mahadevan, L. |
| author_facet | Chau, Oscar Y. L. Bendick, Rebecca Choi, Gary P. T. Mahadevan, L. |
| contents | Subduction zones on the surface of the Earth, where abrupt sliding leads to earthquakes, are generally curved and localized. How does the geometry of these zones influence the occurrence of megathrust earthquakes? Here we use a combination of simple scaling arguments and data analysis using the differential geometry of surfaces to examine the relationship between the earthquake productivity of subduction zones and their shape. A scaling argument suggests how interface curvature changes both the accumulation and release of stress relative to planar interfaces; conformable sliding along relatively flat subduction zones should lead to rare but large events, while curved subduction zones should lead to frequent smaller events. To test this, we leverage global geometry datasets and analyze the correlation between the surface curvatures of the subduction zones and the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes therein. Our analysis shows that weakly curved slab geometries are associated with rarer larger magnitude events, while slab geometries with a larger relative dispersion in curvature are associated with frequent but smaller magnitude events. Using different scale-dependent shape metrics of the subduction zones, we show that the earthquake productivity is influenced by the conformability of the overriding and downgoing plates. More broadly, our results suggest the need to incorporate the large-scale geometry of subduction zones in computational models and predictive frameworks for earthquake risk. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2606_02520 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | How geometry of subduction zones correlates with earthquake dynamics Chau, Oscar Y. L. Bendick, Rebecca Choi, Gary P. T. Mahadevan, L. Geophysics Subduction zones on the surface of the Earth, where abrupt sliding leads to earthquakes, are generally curved and localized. How does the geometry of these zones influence the occurrence of megathrust earthquakes? Here we use a combination of simple scaling arguments and data analysis using the differential geometry of surfaces to examine the relationship between the earthquake productivity of subduction zones and their shape. A scaling argument suggests how interface curvature changes both the accumulation and release of stress relative to planar interfaces; conformable sliding along relatively flat subduction zones should lead to rare but large events, while curved subduction zones should lead to frequent smaller events. To test this, we leverage global geometry datasets and analyze the correlation between the surface curvatures of the subduction zones and the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes therein. Our analysis shows that weakly curved slab geometries are associated with rarer larger magnitude events, while slab geometries with a larger relative dispersion in curvature are associated with frequent but smaller magnitude events. Using different scale-dependent shape metrics of the subduction zones, we show that the earthquake productivity is influenced by the conformability of the overriding and downgoing plates. More broadly, our results suggest the need to incorporate the large-scale geometry of subduction zones in computational models and predictive frameworks for earthquake risk. |
| title | How geometry of subduction zones correlates with earthquake dynamics |
| topic | Geophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02520 |