Deindustrialization and Changes in Manufacturing Trade: Factor Content Calculations for 1978–1995
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Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT)
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
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International Labour Organization
2004
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| _version_ | 1874525218746138629 |
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| author | David Kucera William Milberg |
| author_facet | David Kucera William Milberg David Kucera William Milberg |
| contents | Deindustrialization and Changes in Manufacturing Trade: Factor Content Calculations for 1978–1995 David Kucera William Milberg Input-output analysis is used to estimate the labor content embodied in changes in manufacturing output resulting from changing patterns of manufacturing trade. For ten OECD countries from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, changes in world trade of manufactures are estimated to have had a negative net effect on manufacturing employment of 3.5 million jobs, 2.0 million in the US alone, compared to a 6.2 million decline in actual manufacturing employment. The employment losses resulted mainly from North-South trade. At the industry level, there were large losses in labor-intensive industries and in industries that were strategically targeted by developing country industrial policies. There were employment losses in nearly all manufacturing industries, not a mixture of winners and losers. Such a pattern may result not from surging imports from the South but rather declining exports to the South in the aftermath of the 1980s debt crisis. JEL no. F14, F16, O24 10.1007/BF02653106 DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02653106 publication.journalArticle |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | ilo_995269746602676 |
| institution | Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT) |
| publishDate | 2004 |
| publisher | International Labour Organization |
| spellingShingle | Deindustrialization and Changes in Manufacturing Trade: Factor Content Calculations for 1978–1995 David Kucera William Milberg Deindustrialization and Changes in Manufacturing Trade: Factor Content Calculations for 1978–1995 David Kucera William Milberg Input-output analysis is used to estimate the labor content embodied in changes in manufacturing output resulting from changing patterns of manufacturing trade. For ten OECD countries from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, changes in world trade of manufactures are estimated to have had a negative net effect on manufacturing employment of 3.5 million jobs, 2.0 million in the US alone, compared to a 6.2 million decline in actual manufacturing employment. The employment losses resulted mainly from North-South trade. At the industry level, there were large losses in labor-intensive industries and in industries that were strategically targeted by developing country industrial policies. There were employment losses in nearly all manufacturing industries, not a mixture of winners and losers. Such a pattern may result not from surging imports from the South but rather declining exports to the South in the aftermath of the 1980s debt crisis. JEL no. F14, F16, O24 10.1007/BF02653106 DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02653106 publication.journalArticle |
| title | Deindustrialization and Changes in Manufacturing Trade: Factor Content Calculations for 1978–1995 |
| url | https://researchrepository.ilo.org/esploro/outputs/journalArticle/Deindustrialization-and-Changes-in-Manufacturing-Trade/995269746602676 |