Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

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Autori principali:	Chen, Yongfu, Wu, Zhigang, Okamoto, Katsuo, Han, Xinru, Ma, Guoying, Chien, Hsiaoping, Zhao, Jing
Natura:	Dataset Open Access
Lingua:	en
Pubblicazione:	PANGAEA 2013
Soggetti:	Code; Distance; Exchange rate; Identification; Index; Latitude, median; Net crop revenue per unit area; Number of years; Population density; Precipitation, autumn; Precipitation, spring; Precipitation, summer; Precipitation, winter; Ratio; Soil type; Temperature, autumn; Temperature, spring; Temperature, summer; Temperature, winter
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author	Chen, Yongfu Wu, Zhigang Okamoto, Katsuo Han, Xinru Ma, Guoying Chien, Hsiaoping Zhao, Jing
author_facet	Chen, Yongfu Wu, Zhigang Okamoto, Katsuo Han, Xinru Ma, Guoying Chien, Hsiaoping Zhao, Jing
collection	Datos científicos de ciencias marinas y ambientales
contents	This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.
format	Dataset Open Access
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language	en
publishDate	2013
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spellingShingle	Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China Chen, Yongfu Wu, Zhigang Okamoto, Katsuo Han, Xinru Ma, Guoying Chien, Hsiaoping Zhao, Jing Code; Distance; Exchange rate; Identification; Index; Latitude, median; Net crop revenue per unit area; Number of years; Population density; Precipitation, autumn; Precipitation, spring; Precipitation, summer; Precipitation, winter; Ratio; Soil type; Temperature, autumn; Temperature, spring; Temperature, summer; Temperature, winter This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.
title	Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China
topic	Code; Distance; Exchange rate; Identification; Index; Latitude, median; Net crop revenue per unit area; Number of years; Population density; Precipitation, autumn; Precipitation, spring; Precipitation, summer; Precipitation, winter; Ratio; Soil type; Temperature, autumn; Temperature, spring; Temperature, summer; Temperature, winter
url	https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.807701

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