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Main Authors: Womersley, Freya C, Sousa, Lara L, Humphries, Nicolas E, Abrantes, Kátya, Araujo, Gonzalo, Bach, Steffen S, Barnett, Adam, Berumen, Michael L, Lion, Sandra Bessudo, Braun, Camrin D, Clingham, Elizabeth, Cochran, Jesse E M, de la Parra, Rafael, Diamant, Stella, Dove, Alistair D M, Duarte, Carlos M, Dudgeon, Christine L, Erdmann, Mark V, Espinoza, Eduardo, Ferreira, Luciana C, Fitzpatrick, Richard, Cano, Jaime González, Green, Jonathan R, Guzman, Hector M, Hardenstine, Royale, Hasan, Abdi, Hazin, Fábio H V, Hearn, Alex R, Hueter, Robert E, Jaidah, Mohammed Y, Labaja, Jessica, Ladino, Felipe, Macena, Bruno C L, Meekan, Mark G, Morris, John J, Norman, Bradley M, Peñaherrera-Palma, Cesar R, Pierce, Simon J, Quintero, Lina Maria, Ramírez-Macías, Dení, Reynolds, Samantha D, Robinson, David P, Rohner, Christoph A, Rowat, David R L, Sequeira, Ana M M, Sheaves, Marcus, Shivji, Mahmood S, Sianipar, Abraham B, Skomal, Gregory B, Soler, German, Syakurachman, Ismail, Thorrold, Simon R, Thums, Michele, Tyminski, John P, Webb, D Harry, Wetherbee, Bradley M, Queiroz, Nuno, Sims, David W
Format: Artículo científico
Language:en
Published: Nature climate change 2024
Online Access:https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39650805/
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Table of Contents:
  • Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping. Womersley, Freya C Sousa, Lara L Humphries, Nicolas E Abrantes, Kátya Araujo, Gonzalo Bach, Steffen S Barnett, Adam Berumen, Michael L Lion, Sandra Bessudo Braun, Camrin D Clingham, Elizabeth Cochran, Jesse E M de la Parra, Rafael Diamant, Stella Dove, Alistair D M Duarte, Carlos M Dudgeon, Christine L Erdmann, Mark V Espinoza, Eduardo Ferreira, Luciana C Fitzpatrick, Richard Cano, Jaime González Green, Jonathan R Guzman, Hector M Hardenstine, Royale Hasan, Abdi Hazin, Fábio H V Hearn, Alex R Hueter, Robert E Jaidah, Mohammed Y Labaja, Jessica Ladino, Felipe Macena, Bruno C L Meekan, Mark G Morris, John J Norman, Bradley M Peñaherrera-Palma, Cesar R Pierce, Simon J Quintero, Lina Maria Ramírez-Macías, Dení Reynolds, Samantha D Robinson, David P Rohner, Christoph A Rowat, David R L Sequeira, Ana M M Sheaves, Marcus Shivji, Mahmood S Sianipar, Abraham B Skomal, Gregory B Soler, German Syakurachman, Ismail Thorrold, Simon R Thums, Michele Tyminski, John P Webb, D Harry Wetherbee, Bradley M Queiroz, Nuno Sims, David W Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world's largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species' co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

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