Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore.

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Autores principales: Taff, C C, Shipley, J R, Ardia, D R, Aborn, D, Albert, L, Bélisle, M, Belmaker, A, Berzins, L L, Blake, T, Bonier, F, Brewer, H C, Butler, M W, Cameron, K, Case, S B, Chang van Oordt, D, Clark, R G, Clotfelter, E D, Cox, A R, Dawson, R D, Derryberry, E P, Bohorquez, A M Diaz, Dunn, P O, Ferretti, V, Forsman, A M, Fuirst, M, Garant, D, Garrett, D R, Gutiérrez, J, Hagelin, J C, Hardt, B M, Harris, M E, Horton, K, Houle, C, Houtz, J L, Jones, P L, Jordan, K C, Kindel, A S, Klaver, R, Knutie, S A, Lauck, K S, Lombardo, M P, Lougheed, S C, Love, A C, Mackenzie, S A, McCarty, J P, McKellar, A E, Mejia, N, Morrissey, C A, Nahom, M L, Norris, D R, Para, L M, Pelletier, F, Porter, C K, Rendell, W B, Riddell, E A, Rivers, J W, Robertson, R J, Rose, A, Rosvall, K A, Ryan, T A, Shannon, R P, Shutler, D, Simons, V F, Stanback, M, Tarwater, C E, Thorpe, P A, Tingley, M W, Tischer, C L, Tonelli, B A, Truan, M L, Twining, C W, Uehling, J J, Vleck, C, Vleck, D, Watson, M L, Wheelwright, N T, Whittingham, L A, Winkler, D W, Youngflesh, C, Zimmer, C, Vitousek, M N
Formato: Artículo científico
Lenguaje:en
Publicado: bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology 2025
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author Taff, C C
Shipley, J R
Ardia, D R
Aborn, D
Albert, L
Bélisle, M
Belmaker, A
Berzins, L L
Blake, T
Bonier, F
Brewer, H C
Butler, M W
Cameron, K
Case, S B
Chang van Oordt, D
Clark, R G
Clotfelter, E D
Cox, A R
Dawson, R D
Derryberry, E P
Bohorquez, A M Diaz
Dunn, P O
Ferretti, V
Forsman, A M
Fuirst, M
Garant, D
Garrett, D R
Gutiérrez, J
Hagelin, J C
Hardt, B M
Harris, M E
Horton, K
Houle, C
Houtz, J L
Jones, P L
Jordan, K C
Kindel, A S
Klaver, R
Knutie, S A
Lauck, K S
Lombardo, M P
Lougheed, S C
Love, A C
Mackenzie, S A
McCarty, J P
McKellar, A E
Mejia, N
Morrissey, C A
Nahom, M L
Norris, D R
Para, L M
Pelletier, F
Porter, C K
Rendell, W B
Riddell, E A
Rivers, J W
Robertson, R J
Rose, A
Rosvall, K A
Ryan, T A
Shannon, R P
Shutler, D
Simons, V F
Stanback, M
Tarwater, C E
Thorpe, P A
Tingley, M W
Tischer, C L
Tonelli, B A
Truan, M L
Twining, C W
Uehling, J J
Vleck, C
Vleck, D
Watson, M L
Wheelwright, N T
Whittingham, L A
Winkler, D W
Youngflesh, C
Zimmer, C
Vitousek, M N
author_facet Taff, C C
Shipley, J R
Ardia, D R
Aborn, D
Albert, L
Bélisle, M
Belmaker, A
Berzins, L L
Blake, T
Bonier, F
Brewer, H C
Butler, M W
Cameron, K
Case, S B
Chang van Oordt, D
Clark, R G
Clotfelter, E D
Cox, A R
Dawson, R D
Derryberry, E P
Bohorquez, A M Diaz
Dunn, P O
Ferretti, V
Forsman, A M
Fuirst, M
Garant, D
Garrett, D R
Gutiérrez, J
Hagelin, J C
Hardt, B M
Harris, M E
Horton, K
Houle, C
Houtz, J L
Jones, P L
Jordan, K C
Kindel, A S
Klaver, R
Knutie, S A
Lauck, K S
Lombardo, M P
Lougheed, S C
Love, A C
Mackenzie, S A
McCarty, J P
McKellar, A E
Mejia, N
Morrissey, C A
Nahom, M L
Norris, D R
Para, L M
Pelletier, F
Porter, C K
Rendell, W B
Riddell, E A
Rivers, J W
Robertson, R J
Rose, A
Rosvall, K A
Ryan, T A
Shannon, R P
Shutler, D
Simons, V F
Stanback, M
Tarwater, C E
Thorpe, P A
Tingley, M W
Tischer, C L
Tonelli, B A
Truan, M L
Twining, C W
Uehling, J J
Vleck, C
Vleck, D
Watson, M L
Wheelwright, N T
Whittingham, L A
Winkler, D W
Youngflesh, C
Zimmer, C
Vitousek, M N
Taff, C C
Shipley, J R
Ardia, D R
Aborn, D
Albert, L
Bélisle, M
Belmaker, A
Berzins, L L
Blake, T
Bonier, F
Brewer, H C
Butler, M W
Cameron, K
Case, S B
Chang van Oordt, D
Clark, R G
Clotfelter, E D
Cox, A R
Dawson, R D
Derryberry, E P
Bohorquez, A M Diaz
Dunn, P O
Ferretti, V
Forsman, A M
Fuirst, M
Garant, D
Garrett, D R
Gutiérrez, J
Hagelin, J C
Hardt, B M
Harris, M E
Horton, K
Houle, C
Houtz, J L
Jones, P L
Jordan, K C
Kindel, A S
Klaver, R
Knutie, S A
Lauck, K S
Lombardo, M P
Lougheed, S C
Love, A C
Mackenzie, S A
McCarty, J P
McKellar, A E
Mejia, N
Morrissey, C A
Nahom, M L
Norris, D R
Para, L M
Pelletier, F
Porter, C K
Rendell, W B
Riddell, E A
Rivers, J W
Robertson, R J
Rose, A
Rosvall, K A
Ryan, T A
Shannon, R P
Shutler, D
Simons, V F
Stanback, M
Tarwater, C E
Thorpe, P A
Tingley, M W
Tischer, C L
Tonelli, B A
Truan, M L
Twining, C W
Uehling, J J
Vleck, C
Vleck, D
Watson, M L
Wheelwright, N T
Whittingham, L A
Winkler, D W
Youngflesh, C
Zimmer, C
Vitousek, M N
collection PubMed - marine biology
contents Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore. Taff, C C Shipley, J R Ardia, D R Aborn, D Albert, L Bélisle, M Belmaker, A Berzins, L L Blake, T Bonier, F Brewer, H C Butler, M W Cameron, K Case, S B Chang van Oordt, D Clark, R G Clotfelter, E D Cox, A R Dawson, R D Derryberry, E P Bohorquez, A M Diaz Dunn, P O Ferretti, V Forsman, A M Fuirst, M Garant, D Garrett, D R Gutiérrez, J Hagelin, J C Hardt, B M Harris, M E Horton, K Houle, C Houtz, J L Jones, P L Jordan, K C Kindel, A S Klaver, R Knutie, S A Lauck, K S Lombardo, M P Lougheed, S C Love, A C Mackenzie, S A McCarty, J P McKellar, A E Mejia, N Morrissey, C A Nahom, M L Norris, D R Para, L M Pelletier, F Porter, C K Rendell, W B Riddell, E A Rivers, J W Robertson, R J Rose, A Rosvall, K A Ryan, T A Shannon, R P Shutler, D Simons, V F Stanback, M Tarwater, C E Thorpe, P A Tingley, M W Tischer, C L Tonelli, B A Truan, M L Twining, C W Uehling, J J Vleck, C Vleck, D Watson, M L Wheelwright, N T Whittingham, L A Winkler, D W Youngflesh, C Zimmer, C Vitousek, M N Climate change is shifting when animals breed, but it is still not clear why some populations keep pace with warming while others fall behind. Differences could arise from variation in sensitivity to temperature or constraints on the ability to respond to temperature. Without knowing whether populations differ in sensitivity-or in their ability to act on that sensitivity-we cannot identify which are most at risk. Using 1,555 population-years from 123 populations of tree swallows (), we show that populations have similar sensitivity to local temperature, advancing breeding by about one day per degree of warming. However, northern populations face tighter time constraints and greater exposure to recent warming. Northern populations have advanced laying dates the most, but still experience stronger selection for earlier breeding, especially in warm years; they have also declined most in breeding abundance. These findings show that vulnerability to climate change can arise not just from different sensitivity to warming, but from when and where populations can respond effectively. By disentangling sensitivity from timing constraints, our results support a general mechanism by which even uniformly responsive species can show uneven impacts of climate change across their ranges.
format Artículo científico
id pubmed_41446267
institution PubMed
language en
publishDate 2025
publisher bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology
record_format pubmed
spellingShingle Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore.
Taff, C C
Shipley, J R
Ardia, D R
Aborn, D
Albert, L
Bélisle, M
Belmaker, A
Berzins, L L
Blake, T
Bonier, F
Brewer, H C
Butler, M W
Cameron, K
Case, S B
Chang van Oordt, D
Clark, R G
Clotfelter, E D
Cox, A R
Dawson, R D
Derryberry, E P
Bohorquez, A M Diaz
Dunn, P O
Ferretti, V
Forsman, A M
Fuirst, M
Garant, D
Garrett, D R
Gutiérrez, J
Hagelin, J C
Hardt, B M
Harris, M E
Horton, K
Houle, C
Houtz, J L
Jones, P L
Jordan, K C
Kindel, A S
Klaver, R
Knutie, S A
Lauck, K S
Lombardo, M P
Lougheed, S C
Love, A C
Mackenzie, S A
McCarty, J P
McKellar, A E
Mejia, N
Morrissey, C A
Nahom, M L
Norris, D R
Para, L M
Pelletier, F
Porter, C K
Rendell, W B
Riddell, E A
Rivers, J W
Robertson, R J
Rose, A
Rosvall, K A
Ryan, T A
Shannon, R P
Shutler, D
Simons, V F
Stanback, M
Tarwater, C E
Thorpe, P A
Tingley, M W
Tischer, C L
Tonelli, B A
Truan, M L
Twining, C W
Uehling, J J
Vleck, C
Vleck, D
Watson, M L
Wheelwright, N T
Whittingham, L A
Winkler, D W
Youngflesh, C
Zimmer, C
Vitousek, M N
Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore. Taff, C C Shipley, J R Ardia, D R Aborn, D Albert, L Bélisle, M Belmaker, A Berzins, L L Blake, T Bonier, F Brewer, H C Butler, M W Cameron, K Case, S B Chang van Oordt, D Clark, R G Clotfelter, E D Cox, A R Dawson, R D Derryberry, E P Bohorquez, A M Diaz Dunn, P O Ferretti, V Forsman, A M Fuirst, M Garant, D Garrett, D R Gutiérrez, J Hagelin, J C Hardt, B M Harris, M E Horton, K Houle, C Houtz, J L Jones, P L Jordan, K C Kindel, A S Klaver, R Knutie, S A Lauck, K S Lombardo, M P Lougheed, S C Love, A C Mackenzie, S A McCarty, J P McKellar, A E Mejia, N Morrissey, C A Nahom, M L Norris, D R Para, L M Pelletier, F Porter, C K Rendell, W B Riddell, E A Rivers, J W Robertson, R J Rose, A Rosvall, K A Ryan, T A Shannon, R P Shutler, D Simons, V F Stanback, M Tarwater, C E Thorpe, P A Tingley, M W Tischer, C L Tonelli, B A Truan, M L Twining, C W Uehling, J J Vleck, C Vleck, D Watson, M L Wheelwright, N T Whittingham, L A Winkler, D W Youngflesh, C Zimmer, C Vitousek, M N Climate change is shifting when animals breed, but it is still not clear why some populations keep pace with warming while others fall behind. Differences could arise from variation in sensitivity to temperature or constraints on the ability to respond to temperature. Without knowing whether populations differ in sensitivity-or in their ability to act on that sensitivity-we cannot identify which are most at risk. Using 1,555 population-years from 123 populations of tree swallows (), we show that populations have similar sensitivity to local temperature, advancing breeding by about one day per degree of warming. However, northern populations face tighter time constraints and greater exposure to recent warming. Northern populations have advanced laying dates the most, but still experience stronger selection for earlier breeding, especially in warm years; they have also declined most in breeding abundance. These findings show that vulnerability to climate change can arise not just from different sensitivity to warming, but from when and where populations can respond effectively. By disentangling sensitivity from timing constraints, our results support a general mechanism by which even uniformly responsive species can show uneven impacts of climate change across their ranges.
title Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore.
url https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41446267/