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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
| Published: |
Global change biology
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41498138/ |
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| _version_ | 1868266102697492482 |
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| author | Enes Gramoso, Lucia I A Carroll, Dustin Cavanaugh, Kyle C Bardou, Remi Osland, Michael J Van der Stocken, Tom |
| author_facet | Enes Gramoso, Lucia I A Carroll, Dustin Cavanaugh, Kyle C Bardou, Remi Osland, Michael J Van der Stocken, Tom Enes Gramoso, Lucia I A Carroll, Dustin Cavanaugh, Kyle C Bardou, Remi Osland, Michael J Van der Stocken, Tom |
| collection | PubMed - marine biology |
| contents | 21st-Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States. Enes Gramoso, Lucia I A Carroll, Dustin Cavanaugh, Kyle C Bardou, Remi Osland, Michael J Van der Stocken, Tom Wetlands Climate Change Southeastern United States Seasons Avicennia Rhizophoraceae Cyclonic Storms Temperature Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove-salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high-resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove-salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high-energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long-distance, storm-driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh-dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site-specific decisions on mangrove management. |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | pubmed_41498138 |
| institution | PubMed |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Global change biology |
| record_format | pubmed |
| spellingShingle | 21st-Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States. Enes Gramoso, Lucia I A Carroll, Dustin Cavanaugh, Kyle C Bardou, Remi Osland, Michael J Van der Stocken, Tom Wetlands Climate Change Southeastern United States Seasons Avicennia Rhizophoraceae Cyclonic Storms Temperature 21st-Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States. Enes Gramoso, Lucia I A Carroll, Dustin Cavanaugh, Kyle C Bardou, Remi Osland, Michael J Van der Stocken, Tom Wetlands Climate Change Southeastern United States Seasons Avicennia Rhizophoraceae Cyclonic Storms Temperature Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove-salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high-resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove-salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high-energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long-distance, storm-driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh-dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site-specific decisions on mangrove management. |
| title | 21st-Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States. |
| topic | Wetlands Climate Change Southeastern United States Seasons Avicennia Rhizophoraceae Cyclonic Storms Temperature |
| url | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41498138/ |