The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Sprache: | en |
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Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
2007
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| _version_ | 1876474648241111040 |
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| author | Katja Kesseli |
| author_facet | Katja Kesseli |
| contents | The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050 Katja Kesseli Carlos Galindo Demografía Mexico data evaluation Stochastic forecast consistent demographic estimations Demographic data from Mexico has serious problems of coherence. Most recent estimations are increasing the discrepancies instead of reducing them. Based on analysis of inconsistencies in demographic data, we made a stochastic forecast of Mexican population for the period 2001-2050. The stochastic forecast is composed of random simulations of fourdifferent scenarios, which are given by dissimilarities on demographic estimations of the period 1985-2000. This technique allowed us to take into account the uncertainty embedded in Mexican data. Our results imply that is very unlikely (probability 0.07) that Mexican population size in 2005 was lower than 103.2 millions as published in the recent official population count. This result adds up to requests made by other researchers about revisiting and composing consistent demographic estimations. 2007 artículo científico 1405-7425 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11205106 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=112 Papeles de Población application/pdf Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Papeles de Población (México) Num.51 Vol.13 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_11205106 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publisher | Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México |
| spellingShingle | The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050 Katja Kesseli Demografía Mexico data evaluation Stochastic forecast consistent demographic estimations The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050 Katja Kesseli Carlos Galindo Demografía Mexico data evaluation Stochastic forecast consistent demographic estimations Demographic data from Mexico has serious problems of coherence. Most recent estimations are increasing the discrepancies instead of reducing them. Based on analysis of inconsistencies in demographic data, we made a stochastic forecast of Mexican population for the period 2001-2050. The stochastic forecast is composed of random simulations of fourdifferent scenarios, which are given by dissimilarities on demographic estimations of the period 1985-2000. This technique allowed us to take into account the uncertainty embedded in Mexican data. Our results imply that is very unlikely (probability 0.07) that Mexican population size in 2005 was lower than 103.2 millions as published in the recent official population count. This result adds up to requests made by other researchers about revisiting and composing consistent demographic estimations. 2007 artículo científico 1405-7425 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11205106 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=112 Papeles de Población application/pdf Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Papeles de Población (México) Num.51 Vol.13 |
| title | The many Mexicos. Stochastic forecast 2001-2050 |
| topic | Demografía Mexico data evaluation Stochastic forecast consistent demographic estimations |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11205106 |