A probabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Langue: | en |
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Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
2016
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| _version_ | 1876462267301625856 |
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| author | Víctor Manuel García-Guerrero |
| author_facet | Víctor Manuel García-Guerrero |
| contents | A probabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex Víctor Manuel García-Guerrero Demografía simulation time series Mexican migration demographic forecasting international emigration In this paper a method to model and forecast international immigration, emigration and net migration by age and sex is proposed. This method is based on Lee’s 1993 model, which is an extension of the well-known Lee-Carter model (Lee & Carter, 1992). The method proposed allows forecasting migration consistently with the whole population dynamic in the sense that it incorporates sustainable migration levels. This sustainability is incorporated through a logistic transformation of total migration, and it allows constraining the migration’s fluctuation and thus avoiding negative values in a total population forecast. The method is applied to recent estimates of Mexican immigration, emigration and net migration by age and sex from 1960 to 2010 made by the Mexican Society of Demography (SOMEDE, 2011). The predictive power of the model is tested forecasting the period 1991 to 2010 and comparing the results with estimates for such period. 2016 artículo científico 1405-7425 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11245987005 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/11245987005.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/movil en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=112 Papeles de Población application/pdf Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Papeles de Población (México) Num.88 Vol.22 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_11245987005 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México |
| spellingShingle | A probabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex Víctor Manuel García-Guerrero Demografía simulation time series Mexican migration demographic forecasting international emigration A probabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex Víctor Manuel García-Guerrero Demografía simulation time series Mexican migration demographic forecasting international emigration In this paper a method to model and forecast international immigration, emigration and net migration by age and sex is proposed. This method is based on Lee’s 1993 model, which is an extension of the well-known Lee-Carter model (Lee & Carter, 1992). The method proposed allows forecasting migration consistently with the whole population dynamic in the sense that it incorporates sustainable migration levels. This sustainability is incorporated through a logistic transformation of total migration, and it allows constraining the migration’s fluctuation and thus avoiding negative values in a total population forecast. The method is applied to recent estimates of Mexican immigration, emigration and net migration by age and sex from 1960 to 2010 made by the Mexican Society of Demography (SOMEDE, 2011). The predictive power of the model is tested forecasting the period 1991 to 2010 and comparing the results with estimates for such period. 2016 artículo científico 1405-7425 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11245987005 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/11245987005.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/movil en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=112 Papeles de Población application/pdf Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Papeles de Población (México) Num.88 Vol.22 |
| title | A probabilistic method to forecast the international migration of Mexico by age and sex |
| topic | Demografía simulation time series Mexican migration demographic forecasting international emigration |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11245987005 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/11245987005.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11245987005/movil |