Alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia: analysis and forecast
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| Formato: | Artículo científico |
| Lenguaje: | en |
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Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
2021
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| _version_ | 1876432634100318208 |
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| author | Tatiana Viktorovna Blinova |
| author_facet | Tatiana Viktorovna Blinova |
| contents | Alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia: analysis and forecast Tatiana Viktorovna Blinova Svetlana Gennadievna Bylina Demografía Forecast Scenarios Population Rural Russia The purpose of the study is to discuss the alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia. The Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic has changed the demographic situation in Russia: mortality and natural population decline increased, while the birth rate decreased. Based on the cohort-component method, we projected the rural population size and age structure for the period 2024-2049. Six alternative scenarios were developed: three with zero migration (without taking into account the impact of migration changes on the rural population) and three with migration. Therefore, the migration outflow coefficient was included in the three forecasting scenarios. However, the inflow of some urban population to the countryside is not ruled out. The results show that the population of rural Russia will decrease from 37.3 million (2019) to 29.6-33.1 million people (2049). The age structure of the population will change, the demographic aging of rural areas will continue. 2021 artículo científico 1405-7425 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11272504002 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/11272504002.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/movil 10.22185/24487147.2021.108.11 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=112 Papeles de Población application/pdf Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Papeles de Población (México) Num.108 Vol.27 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_11272504002 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México |
| spellingShingle | Alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia: analysis and forecast Tatiana Viktorovna Blinova Demografía Forecast Scenarios Population Rural Russia Alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia: analysis and forecast Tatiana Viktorovna Blinova Svetlana Gennadievna Bylina Demografía Forecast Scenarios Population Rural Russia The purpose of the study is to discuss the alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia. The Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic has changed the demographic situation in Russia: mortality and natural population decline increased, while the birth rate decreased. Based on the cohort-component method, we projected the rural population size and age structure for the period 2024-2049. Six alternative scenarios were developed: three with zero migration (without taking into account the impact of migration changes on the rural population) and three with migration. Therefore, the migration outflow coefficient was included in the three forecasting scenarios. However, the inflow of some urban population to the countryside is not ruled out. The results show that the population of rural Russia will decrease from 37.3 million (2019) to 29.6-33.1 million people (2049). The age structure of the population will change, the demographic aging of rural areas will continue. 2021 artículo científico 1405-7425 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11272504002 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/11272504002.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/movil 10.22185/24487147.2021.108.11 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=112 Papeles de Población application/pdf Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México Papeles de Población (México) Num.108 Vol.27 |
| title | Alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia: analysis and forecast |
| topic | Demografía Forecast Scenarios Population Rural Russia |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=11272504002 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/11272504002.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/112/11272504002/movil |