Evaluation of Project Duration Uncertainty using the Dependency Structure Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulations
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Sprache: | en |
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Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
2015
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| _version_ | 1876447864026038272 |
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| author | Edelmira Delfina Gálvez |
| author_facet | Edelmira Delfina Gálvez |
| contents | Evaluation of Project Duration Uncertainty using the Dependency Structure Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulations Edelmira Delfina Gálvez Joaquin Bienvenido Ordieres Salvador Fernando Capuz-Rizo Ingeniería DSM Project Duration Managing Project Interval Arithmetic Monte Carlo Simulation The sequence of tasks is vital to the development of any project. The order of tasks is influenced by the information flow among them. The dependency structure matrix (DSM) can be used to model information flow. However, the information used by the DSM, including task duration, time required for communication, and task overlap, can have uncertain values. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of uncertainty on the scheduling of tasks using the DSM. Monte Carlo Simulation is applied to represent uncertainty in time estimates for projects using DSM. Conventional project duration, normal project duration with communication times, and normal project duration containing natural overlapping were considered for project time estimations. Several distribution functions were used to represent the uncertainty. It is concluded that project duration has normal distribution behavior that is independent of the type of input parameter distribution functions; that mean values of the input parameters give a good estimation of mean project duration; that interval and inner interval arithmetic give overestimation and underestimation of project duration times respectively. 2015 artículo científico 0717-7925 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=127641120010 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=1276 Revista de la Construcción application/pdf Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Revista de la Construcción (Chile) Num.2 Vol.14 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_127641120010 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile |
| spellingShingle | Evaluation of Project Duration Uncertainty using the Dependency Structure Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulations Edelmira Delfina Gálvez Ingeniería DSM Project Duration Managing Project Interval Arithmetic Monte Carlo Simulation Evaluation of Project Duration Uncertainty using the Dependency Structure Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulations Edelmira Delfina Gálvez Joaquin Bienvenido Ordieres Salvador Fernando Capuz-Rizo Ingeniería DSM Project Duration Managing Project Interval Arithmetic Monte Carlo Simulation The sequence of tasks is vital to the development of any project. The order of tasks is influenced by the information flow among them. The dependency structure matrix (DSM) can be used to model information flow. However, the information used by the DSM, including task duration, time required for communication, and task overlap, can have uncertain values. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of uncertainty on the scheduling of tasks using the DSM. Monte Carlo Simulation is applied to represent uncertainty in time estimates for projects using DSM. Conventional project duration, normal project duration with communication times, and normal project duration containing natural overlapping were considered for project time estimations. Several distribution functions were used to represent the uncertainty. It is concluded that project duration has normal distribution behavior that is independent of the type of input parameter distribution functions; that mean values of the input parameters give a good estimation of mean project duration; that interval and inner interval arithmetic give overestimation and underestimation of project duration times respectively. 2015 artículo científico 0717-7925 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=127641120010 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=1276 Revista de la Construcción application/pdf Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Revista de la Construcción (Chile) Num.2 Vol.14 |
| title | Evaluation of Project Duration Uncertainty using the Dependency Structure Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulations |
| topic | Ingeniería DSM Project Duration Managing Project Interval Arithmetic Monte Carlo Simulation |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=127641120010 |