Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
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Universidad de Antioquia
2013
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| _version_ | 1876434636529205248 |
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| author | Martha Gutiérrez |
| author_facet | Martha Gutiérrez |
| contents | Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior Martha Gutiérrez Giovanni Franco Carlos Campuzano Economía y Finanzas DJIA GF ratio Gold cycle Fourier analysis neural network forecast Gold is a commodity that is seen as a safe haven when a financial crisis strikes, but when stockmarkets are prosperous, these are more attractive investment alternatives, and so the gold cycle goes on and on. The DJIA/GF (Dow Jones Industrial Average and Gold Fix ratio) is chosen to establish the evolution of gold prices in relation to the NYSE. This paper has two goals: to prove that the DJIA/GF ratio is strongly cyclical by using Fourier analysis and to set a predictive neural networks model to forecast the behavior of this ratio during 2011-2020. To this end, business cycle events like the Great Depression along with the 1970s crisis, and the 1950s boom along with the world economic recovery of the 1990s are contrasted in light of the mentioned ratio. Gold prices are found to evolve cyclically with a dominant period of 37 years and are mainly affected by energy prices, financial markets and macroeconomic indicators. 2013 artículo científico 0120-2596 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=155229532004 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=1552 Lecturas de Economía application/pdf Universidad de Antioquia Lecturas de Economía (Colombia) Num.79 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_155229532004 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | Universidad de Antioquia |
| spellingShingle | Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior Martha Gutiérrez Economía y Finanzas DJIA GF ratio Gold cycle Fourier analysis neural network forecast Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior Martha Gutiérrez Giovanni Franco Carlos Campuzano Economía y Finanzas DJIA GF ratio Gold cycle Fourier analysis neural network forecast Gold is a commodity that is seen as a safe haven when a financial crisis strikes, but when stockmarkets are prosperous, these are more attractive investment alternatives, and so the gold cycle goes on and on. The DJIA/GF (Dow Jones Industrial Average and Gold Fix ratio) is chosen to establish the evolution of gold prices in relation to the NYSE. This paper has two goals: to prove that the DJIA/GF ratio is strongly cyclical by using Fourier analysis and to set a predictive neural networks model to forecast the behavior of this ratio during 2011-2020. To this end, business cycle events like the Great Depression along with the 1970s crisis, and the 1950s boom along with the world economic recovery of the 1990s are contrasted in light of the mentioned ratio. Gold prices are found to evolve cyclically with a dominant period of 37 years and are mainly affected by energy prices, financial markets and macroeconomic indicators. 2013 artículo científico 0120-2596 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=155229532004 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=1552 Lecturas de Economía application/pdf Universidad de Antioquia Lecturas de Economía (Colombia) Num.79 |
| title | Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior |
| topic | Economía y Finanzas DJIA GF ratio Gold cycle Fourier analysis neural network forecast |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=155229532004 |