Analysis of the unemployment gender gap in Colombia 2001-2021: A SARIMA-GARCH model approach
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| Formato: | Artículo científico |
| Lenguaje: | en |
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Universidad del Valle
2022
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| _version_ | 1876443818147971072 |
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| author | Carolina Romero |
| author_facet | Carolina Romero |
| contents | Analysis of the unemployment gender gap in Colombia 2001-2021: A SARIMA-GARCH model approach Carolina Romero Greissly Cárdenas Josefa Ramoni-Perazzi Administración y Contabilidad GARCH SARIMA Colombia Gender gap Unemployment rate Reducing the unemployment gender gap is seen as an indicator of women’s empowerment capacity for the equitable growth of the country’s economy. At the regional level, Colombia exhibits one of the highest unemployment gaps, despite the efforts made to close them. The objective of this study is to model the evolution of the unemployment gender gap in Colombia during the period 2001:01 to 2021:06, to forecast its behavior, and determine its volatility. For this purpose, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (SARIMA) and Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (GARCH) were fitted. The results indicate that, although the gender gap had been slightly declining in the last two decades, it was adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, causing the gap to increase again. On the other hand, there is an increase in the volatility of the series, making it more vulnerable to economic and seasonal cycles. Finally, it is forecast that the gap will tend to decrease in the following months, however, it will increase again in December due to the seasonal component. 2022 artículo científico 0120-4645 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=225075677010 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/225075677010.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/movil 10.25100/cdea.v38i74.11755 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=2250 Cuadernos de Administración application/pdf Universidad del Valle Cuadernos de Administración (Colombia) Num.74 Vol.38 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_225075677010 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Universidad del Valle |
| spellingShingle | Analysis of the unemployment gender gap in Colombia 2001-2021: A SARIMA-GARCH model approach Carolina Romero Administración y Contabilidad GARCH SARIMA Colombia Gender gap Unemployment rate Analysis of the unemployment gender gap in Colombia 2001-2021: A SARIMA-GARCH model approach Carolina Romero Greissly Cárdenas Josefa Ramoni-Perazzi Administración y Contabilidad GARCH SARIMA Colombia Gender gap Unemployment rate Reducing the unemployment gender gap is seen as an indicator of women’s empowerment capacity for the equitable growth of the country’s economy. At the regional level, Colombia exhibits one of the highest unemployment gaps, despite the efforts made to close them. The objective of this study is to model the evolution of the unemployment gender gap in Colombia during the period 2001:01 to 2021:06, to forecast its behavior, and determine its volatility. For this purpose, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (SARIMA) and Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (GARCH) were fitted. The results indicate that, although the gender gap had been slightly declining in the last two decades, it was adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, causing the gap to increase again. On the other hand, there is an increase in the volatility of the series, making it more vulnerable to economic and seasonal cycles. Finally, it is forecast that the gap will tend to decrease in the following months, however, it will increase again in December due to the seasonal component. 2022 artículo científico 0120-4645 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=225075677010 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/225075677010.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/movil 10.25100/cdea.v38i74.11755 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=2250 Cuadernos de Administración application/pdf Universidad del Valle Cuadernos de Administración (Colombia) Num.74 Vol.38 |
| title | Analysis of the unemployment gender gap in Colombia 2001-2021: A SARIMA-GARCH model approach |
| topic | Administración y Contabilidad GARCH SARIMA Colombia Gender gap Unemployment rate |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=225075677010 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/225075677010.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/2250/225075677010/movil |