Extreme value theory applied to the standardized precipitation index

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Main Author: Gabriel Constantino Blain
Format: Artículo científico
Language:en
Published: Universidade Estadual de Maringá 2014
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author Gabriel Constantino Blain
author_facet Gabriel Constantino Blain
contents Extreme value theory applied to the standardized precipitation index Gabriel Constantino Blain Ingeniería SPI Mann Kendall test Wavelet analysis The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a mathematical algorithm developed for detecting and characterizing precipitation departures with regard to an expected regional climate condition. Thus, this study aimed to verify the possibility of using the time-independent general extreme value distribution (GEV) for modeling the probability of occurrence of both SPI annual maxima (the maximum monthly SPI value; SPImax) and SPI annual minima (the minimum monthly SPI value; SPImim) obtained from the weather station of Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1891-2011) and to evaluate the presence of trends, temporal persistence and periodical components in these two datasets. The goodness-of-fit tests used in this study quantify the agreement between the empirical cumulative distribution and the GEV cumulative function. Our results have indicated that such parametric function can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of SPImin and SPImax values. No significant serial correlation and no trend were detected in both series. For the SPImim, the wavelet analysis has detected a dominant mode in the 4-8 year band. Future studies should focus on the development of a GEV model capable of accounting for such feature. No dominant mode was found for the annual monthly SPI maximums. 2014 artículo científico 1806-2563 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=303229336021 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=3032 Acta Scientiarum. Technology application/pdf Universidade Estadual de Maringá Acta Scientiarum. Technology (Brasil) Num.1 Vol.36
format Artículo científico
id redalyc_303229336021
institution Redalyc
language en
publishDate 2014
publisher Universidade Estadual de Maringá
spellingShingle Extreme value theory applied to the standardized precipitation index
Gabriel Constantino Blain
Ingeniería
SPI
Mann
Kendall test
Wavelet analysis
Extreme value theory applied to the standardized precipitation index Gabriel Constantino Blain Ingeniería SPI Mann Kendall test Wavelet analysis The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a mathematical algorithm developed for detecting and characterizing precipitation departures with regard to an expected regional climate condition. Thus, this study aimed to verify the possibility of using the time-independent general extreme value distribution (GEV) for modeling the probability of occurrence of both SPI annual maxima (the maximum monthly SPI value; SPImax) and SPI annual minima (the minimum monthly SPI value; SPImim) obtained from the weather station of Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1891-2011) and to evaluate the presence of trends, temporal persistence and periodical components in these two datasets. The goodness-of-fit tests used in this study quantify the agreement between the empirical cumulative distribution and the GEV cumulative function. Our results have indicated that such parametric function can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of SPImin and SPImax values. No significant serial correlation and no trend were detected in both series. For the SPImim, the wavelet analysis has detected a dominant mode in the 4-8 year band. Future studies should focus on the development of a GEV model capable of accounting for such feature. No dominant mode was found for the annual monthly SPI maximums. 2014 artículo científico 1806-2563 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=303229336021 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=3032 Acta Scientiarum. Technology application/pdf Universidade Estadual de Maringá Acta Scientiarum. Technology (Brasil) Num.1 Vol.36
title Extreme value theory applied to the standardized precipitation index
topic Ingeniería
SPI
Mann
Kendall test
Wavelet analysis
url https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=303229336021