A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
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Universidade Estadual de Maringá
2019
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| _version_ | 1876462873893404672 |
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| author | Aline Castelo Branco Mancuso |
| author_facet | Aline Castelo Branco Mancuso |
| contents | A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series Aline Castelo Branco Mancuso Liane Werner Ingeniería accuracy simulation forecasting Combinations of forecasts Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper presents a comparative study of three methods of combination and their individual forecasts. Based on simulated data, it is evaluated the accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks, ARIMA and exponential smoothing models; calculating the combined forecasts through simple average, minimum variance and regression methods. Four accuracy measurements, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and Theil’s U, were used for choosing the most accurate method. The main contribution is the accuracy of the combination by regression methods. 2019 artículo científico 1806-2563 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=303260200057 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/303260200057.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/movil https://doi.org/10.4025/actascitechnol.v41i1.41452 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=3032 Acta Scientiarum. Technology application/pdf Universidade Estadual de Maringá Acta Scientiarum. Technology (Brasil) Vol.41 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_303260200057 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | Universidade Estadual de Maringá |
| spellingShingle | A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series Aline Castelo Branco Mancuso Ingeniería accuracy simulation forecasting Combinations of forecasts A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series Aline Castelo Branco Mancuso Liane Werner Ingeniería accuracy simulation forecasting Combinations of forecasts Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper presents a comparative study of three methods of combination and their individual forecasts. Based on simulated data, it is evaluated the accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks, ARIMA and exponential smoothing models; calculating the combined forecasts through simple average, minimum variance and regression methods. Four accuracy measurements, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and Theil’s U, were used for choosing the most accurate method. The main contribution is the accuracy of the combination by regression methods. 2019 artículo científico 1806-2563 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=303260200057 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/303260200057.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/movil https://doi.org/10.4025/actascitechnol.v41i1.41452 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=3032 Acta Scientiarum. Technology application/pdf Universidade Estadual de Maringá Acta Scientiarum. Technology (Brasil) Vol.41 |
| title | A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series |
| topic | Ingeniería accuracy simulation forecasting Combinations of forecasts |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=303260200057 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/303260200057.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3032/303260200057/movil https://doi.org/10.4025/actascitechnol.v41i1.41452 |