Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models
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Redalyc
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| Natura: | Artículo científico |
| Lingua: | en |
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Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção
2018
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| _version_ | 1876425833468395520 |
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| author | Larissa Resende |
| author_facet | Larissa Resende |
| contents | Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models Larissa Resende Murilo Soares Pedro Ferreira Ingeniería Forecast Forecast deviation Electric power load Operations planning Brazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN) Paper aims This paper aims to discuss how the energy load forecasts used by the System Operator and the main agents of the sector are made, and for what purposes, besides discuss the forecast deviations of the ONS’s and EPE’s models and their consequences and costs to the agents involved. Originality Fill a gap in the Brazilian literature when dealing with the Electric Power Load formally, and the consequences of forecast deviation used by the operator of system. Research method Simulations are carried out to estimate the cost of deviation, in order to assess the impact of the load forecast on the system. Main findings As a result, there is an urgent need to clarify forecasting methods and strategies; to avoid, by the sector agents, justifications that optimistic forecasts are necessary as security measures. Implications for theory and practice There are evidence that small improvements in forecasting models imply significant cost reductions. 2018 artículo científico 0103-6513 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=396754754018 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/396754754018.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/movil 10.1590/0103-6513.170081 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=3967 Production application/pdf Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção Production (Brasil) Vol.28 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_396754754018 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção |
| spellingShingle | Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models Larissa Resende Ingeniería Forecast Forecast deviation Electric power load Operations planning Brazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN) Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models Larissa Resende Murilo Soares Pedro Ferreira Ingeniería Forecast Forecast deviation Electric power load Operations planning Brazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN) Paper aims This paper aims to discuss how the energy load forecasts used by the System Operator and the main agents of the sector are made, and for what purposes, besides discuss the forecast deviations of the ONS’s and EPE’s models and their consequences and costs to the agents involved. Originality Fill a gap in the Brazilian literature when dealing with the Electric Power Load formally, and the consequences of forecast deviation used by the operator of system. Research method Simulations are carried out to estimate the cost of deviation, in order to assess the impact of the load forecast on the system. Main findings As a result, there is an urgent need to clarify forecasting methods and strategies; to avoid, by the sector agents, justifications that optimistic forecasts are necessary as security measures. Implications for theory and practice There are evidence that small improvements in forecasting models imply significant cost reductions. 2018 artículo científico 0103-6513 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=396754754018 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/396754754018.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/movil 10.1590/0103-6513.170081 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=3967 Production application/pdf Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção Production (Brasil) Vol.28 |
| title | Electric power load in Brazil: view on the long-term forecasting models |
| topic | Ingeniería Forecast Forecast deviation Electric power load Operations planning Brazilian Interconnected Power System (SIN) |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=396754754018 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/396754754018.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/3967/396754754018/movil |