Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements
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| Natura: | Artículo científico |
| Lingua: | en |
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Universidad de Antioquia
2021
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| _version_ | 1876451238484115456 |
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| author | Paola A. Arias |
| author_facet | Paola A. Arias |
| contents | Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements Paola A. Arias Geusep Ortega Laura D. Villegas J. Alejandro Martínez Ingeniería CMIP5 CMIP6 Colombia climate change general circulation models Northern South America is among the regions with the highest vulnerability to climate change. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are among the different tools considered to analyze the impacts of climate change. In particular, GCMs have been proved to provide useful information, although they exhibit systematic biases and fail in reproducing regional climate, particularly in terrains with complex topography. This work evaluates the performance of GCMs included in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), representing the annual cycle of precipitation and air surface temperature in Colombia. To evaluate this, we consider different observational and reanalysis datasets, including in situ gauges from the Colombian Meteorological Institute. Our results indicate that although the most recent generation of GCMs (CMIP6) show improvements with respect to the previous generation (CMIP5), they still have systematic biases in representing the Intertropical Convergence Zone and elevation-dependent processes, which highly determine intra-annual precipitation and air surface temperature in Colombia. In addition, CMIP6 models have larger biases in temperature over the Andes than CMIP5. We also analyze climate projections by the end of the 21st century according to the CMIP5/CMIP6 simulations under the highest greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Models show projections toward warmer air surface temperatures and mixed changes of precipitation, with decreases of precipitation over the Orinoco and Colombian Amazon in September-November and increases over the eastern equatorial Pacific during the entire year. 2021 artículo científico 0120-6230 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=43068102007 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/43068102007.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/movil 10.17533/udea.redin.20210525 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=430 Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia application/pdf Universidad de Antioquia Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia (Colombia) Num.100 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_43068102007 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Universidad de Antioquia |
| spellingShingle | Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements Paola A. Arias Ingeniería CMIP5 CMIP6 Colombia climate change general circulation models Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements Paola A. Arias Geusep Ortega Laura D. Villegas J. Alejandro Martínez Ingeniería CMIP5 CMIP6 Colombia climate change general circulation models Northern South America is among the regions with the highest vulnerability to climate change. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are among the different tools considered to analyze the impacts of climate change. In particular, GCMs have been proved to provide useful information, although they exhibit systematic biases and fail in reproducing regional climate, particularly in terrains with complex topography. This work evaluates the performance of GCMs included in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), representing the annual cycle of precipitation and air surface temperature in Colombia. To evaluate this, we consider different observational and reanalysis datasets, including in situ gauges from the Colombian Meteorological Institute. Our results indicate that although the most recent generation of GCMs (CMIP6) show improvements with respect to the previous generation (CMIP5), they still have systematic biases in representing the Intertropical Convergence Zone and elevation-dependent processes, which highly determine intra-annual precipitation and air surface temperature in Colombia. In addition, CMIP6 models have larger biases in temperature over the Andes than CMIP5. We also analyze climate projections by the end of the 21st century according to the CMIP5/CMIP6 simulations under the highest greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Models show projections toward warmer air surface temperatures and mixed changes of precipitation, with decreases of precipitation over the Orinoco and Colombian Amazon in September-November and increases over the eastern equatorial Pacific during the entire year. 2021 artículo científico 0120-6230 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=43068102007 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/43068102007.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/movil 10.17533/udea.redin.20210525 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=430 Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia application/pdf Universidad de Antioquia Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia (Colombia) Num.100 |
| title | Colombian climatology in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: Persistent biases and improvements |
| topic | Ingeniería CMIP5 CMIP6 Colombia climate change general circulation models |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=43068102007 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/43068102007.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/430/43068102007/movil |