Stochastic analysis of time series of temperatures in the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula
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| Natura: | Artículo científico |
| Lingua: | en |
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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
2004
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| _version_ | 1876484835874177024 |
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| author | L. García Barrón |
| author_facet | L. García Barrón |
| contents | Stochastic analysis of time series of temperatures in the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula L. García Barrón Maria Fernanda Pita Biología time series climate change Iberian Peninsula Stochastic processes Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been devised for long-term monthlyseries of maximum and minimum temperatures from south-western Spanish observatories. The original serieswere transformed into stationary ones, and the orders (p, d, q) for each monthly series were obtained. Thesewere validated using series of residuals, and the parameters of the functions were estimated from the monthlystochastic models. The forecasts of change formulated from the ARIMA models suggest that the minimumtemperatures in the study area are in a mean warming phase of the order of 0.2 ºC over the next decade. Thechange in maximum temperatures is not significantly defined. These estimations correspond with thoseobtained by the authors in earlier studies using other methods, but the level of precision is much higher in thiscase. 2004 artículo científico 0187-6236 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56517403 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=565 Atmósfera application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Atmósfera (México) Num.4 Vol.17 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_56517403 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2004 |
| publisher | Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México |
| spellingShingle | Stochastic analysis of time series of temperatures in the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula L. García Barrón Biología time series climate change Iberian Peninsula Stochastic processes Stochastic analysis of time series of temperatures in the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula L. García Barrón Maria Fernanda Pita Biología time series climate change Iberian Peninsula Stochastic processes Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been devised for long-term monthlyseries of maximum and minimum temperatures from south-western Spanish observatories. The original serieswere transformed into stationary ones, and the orders (p, d, q) for each monthly series were obtained. Thesewere validated using series of residuals, and the parameters of the functions were estimated from the monthlystochastic models. The forecasts of change formulated from the ARIMA models suggest that the minimumtemperatures in the study area are in a mean warming phase of the order of 0.2 ºC over the next decade. Thechange in maximum temperatures is not significantly defined. These estimations correspond with thoseobtained by the authors in earlier studies using other methods, but the level of precision is much higher in thiscase. 2004 artículo científico 0187-6236 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56517403 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=565 Atmósfera application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Atmósfera (México) Num.4 Vol.17 |
| title | Stochastic analysis of time series of temperatures in the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula |
| topic | Biología time series climate change Iberian Peninsula Stochastic processes |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56517403 |