Ensemble lagged forecasts of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
2007
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| author | Vinodkumar Vinodkumar |
| author_facet | Vinodkumar Vinodkumar |
| contents | Ensemble lagged forecasts of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model Vinodkumar Vinodkumar A. Chandrasekar Biología MM5 Ensemble depression A monsoon depression formed over the Bay of Bengal, India, during 27 July 1999 and crossed the east coastof India on 28 July 1999. The system caused copious rainfall over the east coast of India and adjacent regionsand is investigated in this study using ensemble lagged methods with the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Two sets of experiments are designed with five members of ensembles in each set starting at 12 UTC 25 July 1999and at preceding times separated by 3 hour intervals. In the first experiment, the National Center forEnvironmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data is utilized in the forecast of a coarse grid spacing domainand subsequent nest down to a finer (30 km) grid spacing domain. In the second experiment, the NCEPreanalysis data is directly utilized in the 30 km domain as initial/boundary conditions. The results of theensemble average of both experiments are compared with the analysis and observations. It is found that at theinitial times of verification, the ensemble average of the sea level pressure field corresponding to the secondexperiment has a larger horizontal structure and is more closer to NCEP reanalysis. However at later times ofverification, the ensemble average of sea level pressure field corresponding to the first experiment is found tobe better. The area averaged 24 hour accumulated precipitation of all the ensemble members have highervalues corresponding to the first experiment as compared to the second experiment. Also, the spread of thearea averaged 24 hour accumulated precipitation of all the ensemble members with respect to their respectiveensemble average are higher for the first experiment as compared to the second experiment. The results of thestudy would be useful to operational weather forecasting centers in India as it would provide them differentevaluating ways to develop and test the importance of ensembles 2007 artículo científico 0187-6236 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56520102 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=565 Atmósfera application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Atmósfera (México) Num.1 Vol.20 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_56520102 |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publisher | Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México |
| spellingShingle | Ensemble lagged forecasts of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model Vinodkumar Vinodkumar Biología MM5 Ensemble depression Ensemble lagged forecasts of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model Vinodkumar Vinodkumar A. Chandrasekar Biología MM5 Ensemble depression A monsoon depression formed over the Bay of Bengal, India, during 27 July 1999 and crossed the east coastof India on 28 July 1999. The system caused copious rainfall over the east coast of India and adjacent regionsand is investigated in this study using ensemble lagged methods with the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Two sets of experiments are designed with five members of ensembles in each set starting at 12 UTC 25 July 1999and at preceding times separated by 3 hour intervals. In the first experiment, the National Center forEnvironmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data is utilized in the forecast of a coarse grid spacing domainand subsequent nest down to a finer (30 km) grid spacing domain. In the second experiment, the NCEPreanalysis data is directly utilized in the 30 km domain as initial/boundary conditions. The results of theensemble average of both experiments are compared with the analysis and observations. It is found that at theinitial times of verification, the ensemble average of the sea level pressure field corresponding to the secondexperiment has a larger horizontal structure and is more closer to NCEP reanalysis. However at later times ofverification, the ensemble average of sea level pressure field corresponding to the first experiment is found tobe better. The area averaged 24 hour accumulated precipitation of all the ensemble members have highervalues corresponding to the first experiment as compared to the second experiment. Also, the spread of thearea averaged 24 hour accumulated precipitation of all the ensemble members with respect to their respectiveensemble average are higher for the first experiment as compared to the second experiment. The results of thestudy would be useful to operational weather forecasting centers in India as it would provide them differentevaluating ways to develop and test the importance of ensembles 2007 artículo científico 0187-6236 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56520102 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=565 Atmósfera application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Atmósfera (México) Num.1 Vol.20 |
| title | Ensemble lagged forecasts of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model |
| topic | Biología MM5 Ensemble depression |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56520102 |