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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
| Published: |
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
2021
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| Online Access: | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56572301001 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/565/56572301001/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/565/56572301001/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/565/56572301001/56572301001.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/565/56572301001/movil |
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Table of Contents:
- Trends in temperature extremes in selected growing cities of Mexico under a non-stationary climate O. Rafael García-Cueto J. Ernesto López-Velázquez Gonzalo Bojórquez-Morales Néstor Santillán-Soto David Enrique Flores-Jiménez Biología non return periods cities of Mexico stationary climate Extreme temperatures Mexico is vulnerable to extreme climatic events; however, their impact is not uniform in all the country. This study presents an analysis of extreme temperatures in 12 Mexican cities, modeled under the assumption of a non-stationary climate. Temporal trends were estimated from an available climatological base of maximum and minimum temperatures with the non-parametric tests of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope method, and a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was used to model both temperatures. A likelihood ratio test and Akaike and Bayesian information criteria were used to evaluate the optimal model choice with incorporation of a covariate. Using the best model, return levels and confidence intervals for future scenarios were estimated. A trend towards urban warming was detected from both the non-parametric tests and the GEV distribution, although with heterogeneous behavior. In the series of the maximum temperatures, half of the cities analyzed were non-stationary, and of those, the city of Guadalajara, located in the center-west of the country had a negative trend. The trend for minimum temperatures was more uniform, as 90% of the cities were non-stationary with a positive trend, and only 10%, in an urban area to the east of the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico (Milpa Alta) and a coastal city of the Gulf of Mexico (Veracruz), showed stationary series. It is therefore concluded that return periods of thermal extremes estimated in a changing climate temporarily showed a significant variation, so statistical modeling must consider this behavior due to its importance for risk assessments and adaptation purposes. 2021 artículo científico 0187-6236 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56572301001 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/565/56572301001/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/565/56572301001/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/565/56572301001/56572301001.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/565/56572301001/movil 10.20937/ATM.52784 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=565 Atmósfera application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Atmósfera (México) Num.3 Vol.34