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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
| Published: |
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
2001
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| Online Access: | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56840306 |
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Table of Contents:
- Evaluation of two Eta Model versions for weather forecast over South America Marcelo E. Seluchi Sin Chan Chou Ciencias de la Tierra Meteorology performance South America regional modeling surface processes A comparison of performance of two versions of the Eta/CPTEC model is presented. The new version is an update of anearlier operational one and includes representation of soil and vegetation types. The soil/vegetation model contains two undergroundlayers and a canopy layer. Evaluation was carried out by comparing the mean and root mean square errors of severalvariables for an ensemble of 15 meteorological situations, using the NCEP analyses, upper air soundings and precipitation dataover South America. Precipitation forecasts were evaluated by the equitable threat score (ETS) and the bias score (BIAS).The mean errors from both versions show similarities during the first 24 hours of forecast, but surface temperature is moreaccurately predicted by the updated model. After 48 hours, temperature and humidity forecasts show better skill in the new versiontoo. Over subtropical South America differences are more evident in temperature and humidity, less so for geopotential heightsand practically nonexistent for horizontal winds. The precipitation forecasts for the updated version have equitable threat scoresslightly higher and similar bias scores during the first 24 hours. After 48 hours this version tends to overestimate the rainfall, whileits spatial distribution remains unaffected. 2001 artículo científico 0016-7169 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=56840306 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=568 Geofísica Internacional application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Geofísica Internacional (México) Num.3 Vol.40