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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
| Published: |
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
2007
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| Online Access: | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=57224302 |
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Table of Contents:
- Infl uence of different probability based models on oil prospect exploration decision making: a case from southern Mexico Siti Hajar Salleh Eduardo Rosales Idalia Flores de la Mota Ciencias de la Tierra risk probability oil exploration southern Mexico probability tree Petroleum exploration is a high risk business. In this paper, we apply several fundamental conceptsof petroleum prospect probability evaluation, illustrating the topic with a case study from southernMexico. Prospect is a small geographic area where geotechnical evidence predicts the probable economicexistence of oil and/or gas. Risk assessment helps to estimate discovery probabilities before drilling.Several geologic chance factors, i.e., reservoir facies, pore volume, geologic structure, seal, source rock,migration and retention were rated to obtain prospect probabilities for the potential accumulation forzones A to D. Zone A is composed of Upper Jurassic rocks, and includes a real reservoir(s). Zones B toD are hypothetical but based on geological facts of the same geologic province. They are respectivelycomposed of Cretaceous, Miocene and Pliocene rocks and located in the same geographic area of ZoneA. Based on the prospect geological framework and its associated geologic chance factors, we defi nedand calculated the corresponding common factor as well as the individual probabilities, thereby allowingus to build a clear picture of discovery probabilities. Three models, representing contrasting source rockconcepts generated a range of discovery probabilities for each zone (A to D). Our results show thatthe discovery ranking begins with Model 2, followed by Model 1, and lastly by Model 3. Using thoseprobabilities results we defi ned the best geological scenario and point out what we believe are the mostappropriate next steps for an improved, less risky exploratory effort. 2007 artículo científico 1026-8774 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=57224302 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=572 Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Geológicas application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Geológicas (México) Num.3 Vol.24