Determinantes de la demanda de crédito. Una estimación con un modelo mensual de series de tiempo para Venezuela
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Sprache: | en |
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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
2003
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| author | Leonardo V. Vera |
| author_facet | Leonardo V. Vera |
| contents | Determinantes de la demanda de crédito. Una estimación con un modelo mensual de series de tiempo para Venezuela Leonardo V. Vera Economía y Finanzas For more than a decade, the credit market in Venezuela has been witnessing aprogressive process of contraction without there being any rigorous explanationfor this behaviour. This paper suggests that it is possible to identify the causes inthe determinants operating in the demand for credit, and to illustrate this presentsan estimation using monthly macro-economic series relating to the period 1986-2000. The estimation is made on the basis of a theoretical model that starts withthe restriction of company financing. Assuming, in the post-Keynesian tradition,that the banks are the price fixers in the credit market, it is possible to identifymarket demand. The methodology and proof of co-integration indicateunambiguously that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between realcredit stock, the index of economic activity, the (nominal) interest rate, the pricecostmargin and the real exchange rate, in addition to other signs consistent withthe theory. The short-term dynamic derived from a Model of Error CorrectionVectors, corroborates the results obtained in the long-term relationship. By thesame token, there is no evidence of endogeneity, either in the interest rate or inthe index of economic activity, and this indicates that it is possible to supposethat the market is dominated by the demand side. Credit in real terms suppliedto the private sector, responds positively to the rhythm of economic activity, tothe cash flow of the companies, and to the effective real exchange rate, butmaintains an inverse relationship to the interest rate. 2003 artículo científico 0185-1667 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=60124504 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=601 Investigación Económica application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Investigación Económica (México) Num.245 Vol.LXII |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_60124504 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2003 |
| publisher | Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México |
| spellingShingle | Determinantes de la demanda de crédito. Una estimación con un modelo mensual de series de tiempo para Venezuela Leonardo V. Vera Economía y Finanzas Determinantes de la demanda de crédito. Una estimación con un modelo mensual de series de tiempo para Venezuela Leonardo V. Vera Economía y Finanzas For more than a decade, the credit market in Venezuela has been witnessing aprogressive process of contraction without there being any rigorous explanationfor this behaviour. This paper suggests that it is possible to identify the causes inthe determinants operating in the demand for credit, and to illustrate this presentsan estimation using monthly macro-economic series relating to the period 1986-2000. The estimation is made on the basis of a theoretical model that starts withthe restriction of company financing. Assuming, in the post-Keynesian tradition,that the banks are the price fixers in the credit market, it is possible to identifymarket demand. The methodology and proof of co-integration indicateunambiguously that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between realcredit stock, the index of economic activity, the (nominal) interest rate, the pricecostmargin and the real exchange rate, in addition to other signs consistent withthe theory. The short-term dynamic derived from a Model of Error CorrectionVectors, corroborates the results obtained in the long-term relationship. By thesame token, there is no evidence of endogeneity, either in the interest rate or inthe index of economic activity, and this indicates that it is possible to supposethat the market is dominated by the demand side. Credit in real terms suppliedto the private sector, responds positively to the rhythm of economic activity, tothe cash flow of the companies, and to the effective real exchange rate, butmaintains an inverse relationship to the interest rate. 2003 artículo científico 0185-1667 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=60124504 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=601 Investigación Económica application/pdf Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Investigación Económica (México) Num.245 Vol.LXII |
| title | Determinantes de la demanda de crédito. Una estimación con un modelo mensual de series de tiempo para Venezuela |
| topic | Economía y Finanzas |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=60124504 |