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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Ulises Beltrán
Format:	Artículo científico
Language:	es
Published:	Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C. 2003
Subjects:	Multidisciplinarias (Ciencias Sociales) incertidumbre voto retrospectivo elecciones presidenciales
Online Access:	https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=60310202
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Venciendo la incertidumbre: el voto retrospectivo en la elección presidencial de julio de 2000 Ulises Beltrán Multidisciplinarias (Ciencias Sociales) incertidumbre voto retrospectivo elecciones presidenciales Cuando las condiciones son malas, los ciudadanos votan en contra del partido en el gobierno.Este supuesto, sin embargo, encuentra un serio cuestionamiento en un sistema políticocomo el mexicano, donde un mismo partido ha ocupado por más de 70 años la presidencia.En esta circunstancia, el votante no puede evaluar las posibles consecuencias delas políticas públicas de un gobierno de oposición basado en su desempeño anterior. El PRIperdió por primera vez la mayoría del voto nacional en la elección de julio de 1997, en lo que pareció ser un claro rechazo a su desempeño durante la crisis de 1994. No obstante,aunque en los años siguientes prácticamente todos los indicadores económicos mejoraron, ypara diciembre de 1999 el PRI tenía en las encuestas más de 50 por ciento de las preferencias,en julio de 2000 perdió la presidencia. Basado en dos encuestas nacionales levantadasen febrero y junio de 2000 y en un desarrollo completo del modelo de voto retrospectivo,este artículo muestra la importancia de las evaluaciones retrospectivas de la situación delpaís y de las percepciones sobre el desempeño posible de los contendientes sobre la probabilidadindividual de votar por el PRI. Se destaca el papel que desempeñaron los distintosniveles de certidumbre sobre el posible desempeño de la oposición en el aumento dela probabilidad de votar por el candidato Vicente Fox. 2003 artículo científico 1665-2037 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=60310202 es http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=603 Política y Gobierno application/pdf Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C. Política y Gobierno (México) Num.2 Vol.X

if (filemtime($filename) + $maxlifetime < time()) { unlink($filename); $count++; } } return $count; } /** * A function that is called internally when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ protected function saveSession($sessId, $data): bool { $sessFile = $this->path . '/sess_' . $sessId; if ($handle = fopen($sessFile, 'w')) { $return = false; // Lock the file for exclusive access to avoid issues with multiple // processes writing session simultaneously: if (flock($handle, LOCK_EX)) { $return = fwrite($handle, $data); // Make sure that there's no trailing data by truncating the file to // the correct length: ftruncate($handle, strlen($data)); fflush($handle); flock($handle, LOCK_UN); } fclose($handle); if ($return !== false) { return true; } } // If we got this far, something went wrong with the file output... // It is tempting to throw an exception here, but this code is called // outside of the context of exception handling, so all we can do is // echo a message.

// Anecdotal testing Today and Yesterday seems to indicate destroy() // is called by the garbage collector and everything is good. // Something to keep in mind though. return 0; } /** * Write function that is called when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ public function write($sessId, $data): bool { if ($this->writesDisabled) { return true; } return $this->saveSession($sessId, $data); } /** * A function that is called internally when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ abstract protected function saveSession($sessId, $data): bool; }

* * @return void */ public function writeClose() { // The assumption is that we're using PHP's ext/session. // session_write_close() will actually overwrite $_SESSION with an // empty array on completion -- which leads to a mismatch between what // is in the storage object and $_SESSION. To get around this, we // temporarily reset $_SESSION to an array, and then re-link it to // the storage object. // // Additionally, while you _can_ write to $_SESSION following a // session_write_close() operation, no changes made to it will be // flushed to the session handler. As such, we now mark the storage // object isImmutable. $storage = $this->getStorage(); if (! $storage->isImmutable()) { $_SESSION = $storage->toArray(true); session_write_close(); $storage->fromArray($_SESSION); $storage->markImmutable(); } } /** * Attempt to set the session name * * If the session has already been started, or if the name provided fails * validation, an exception will be raised. * * @param string $name * @return SessionManager * @throws Exception\InvalidArgumentException */ public function setName($name) { if ($this->sessionExists()) { throw new Exception\InvalidArgumentException( 'Cannot set session name after a session has already started'

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