Fog/haze events forecast validation using the mesoscale model WRF
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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
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Instituto de Meteorología de la República de Cuba
2021
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| _version_ | 1876432191921061888 |
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| author | Pedro Manuel González Jardines |
| author_facet | Pedro Manuel González Jardines |
| contents | Fog/haze events forecast validation using the mesoscale model WRF Pedro Manuel González Jardines Maibys Sierra Lorenzo Carlos Manuel González Ramírez Israel Borrajero Montejo Física, Astronomía y Matemáticas Fog WRF haze visibility probability The main objective of this research is the validation of numerical tools used for fog/haze events forecasting over the national territory. It is an extension of the SisPI project (Short range Forecasting System, with Spanish acronym) working operationally at the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET, with Spanish acronym). Version 3.8.1 of the mesoscale model WRF-ARW is used, initialized at 00:00 and 06:00 UTC to evaluate the impact of initialization on forecasts. As study area, it is chosen the region comprising the provinces of Havana, Artemisa and Mayabeque, which has ten conventional weather stations, divided into North coast, inner zone and South coast, for a more detailed assessment. Main absolute errors and linear correlations of the variables involved in the genesis and evolution of these phenomena were calculated allowing to determine a tendency to overestimate the values predicted on the study area. Contingency tables for binary events are also used for forecast evaluation, which show that the use of a cumulative distribution function allows a high degree of detection of these phenomena. 2021 artículo científico 2664-0880 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=701977554007 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/701977554007.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/movil en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=7019 Revista cubana de meteorología application/pdf Instituto de Meteorología de la República de Cuba Revista cubana de meteorología (Cuba) Num.2 Vol.27 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_701977554007 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Instituto de Meteorología de la República de Cuba |
| spellingShingle | Fog/haze events forecast validation using the mesoscale model WRF Pedro Manuel González Jardines Física, Astronomía y Matemáticas Fog WRF haze visibility probability Fog/haze events forecast validation using the mesoscale model WRF Pedro Manuel González Jardines Maibys Sierra Lorenzo Carlos Manuel González Ramírez Israel Borrajero Montejo Física, Astronomía y Matemáticas Fog WRF haze visibility probability The main objective of this research is the validation of numerical tools used for fog/haze events forecasting over the national territory. It is an extension of the SisPI project (Short range Forecasting System, with Spanish acronym) working operationally at the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET, with Spanish acronym). Version 3.8.1 of the mesoscale model WRF-ARW is used, initialized at 00:00 and 06:00 UTC to evaluate the impact of initialization on forecasts. As study area, it is chosen the region comprising the provinces of Havana, Artemisa and Mayabeque, which has ten conventional weather stations, divided into North coast, inner zone and South coast, for a more detailed assessment. Main absolute errors and linear correlations of the variables involved in the genesis and evolution of these phenomena were calculated allowing to determine a tendency to overestimate the values predicted on the study area. Contingency tables for binary events are also used for forecast evaluation, which show that the use of a cumulative distribution function allows a high degree of detection of these phenomena. 2021 artículo científico 2664-0880 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=701977554007 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/701977554007.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/movil en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=7019 Revista cubana de meteorología application/pdf Instituto de Meteorología de la República de Cuba Revista cubana de meteorología (Cuba) Num.2 Vol.27 |
| title | Fog/haze events forecast validation using the mesoscale model WRF |
| topic | Física, Astronomía y Matemáticas Fog WRF haze visibility probability |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=701977554007 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/701977554007.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/7019/701977554007/movil |