Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions
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| Formato: | Artículo científico |
| Lenguaje: | en |
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Universidade Federal de Lavras
2011
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| _version_ | 1876426061814693888 |
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| author | Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes |
| author_facet | Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes |
| contents | Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes Luiz Moreira Coelho Júnior Antônio Donizette de Oliveira José Márcio de Mello José Luiz Pereira de Rezende Charles Plínio de Castro Silva Agrociencias Forest economics investment analysis risk and uncertainty Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is infl uenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash fl ow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confi dence in decision-making. 2011 artículo científico 0104-7760 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=74419332014 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=744 CERNE application/pdf Universidade Federal de Lavras CERNE (Brasil) Num.3 Vol.17 |
| format | Artículo científico |
| id | redalyc_74419332014 |
| institution | Redalyc |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | Universidade Federal de Lavras |
| spellingShingle | Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes Agrociencias Forest economics investment analysis risk and uncertainty Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes Luiz Moreira Coelho Júnior Antônio Donizette de Oliveira José Márcio de Mello José Luiz Pereira de Rezende Charles Plínio de Castro Silva Agrociencias Forest economics investment analysis risk and uncertainty Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is infl uenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash fl ow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confi dence in decision-making. 2011 artículo científico 0104-7760 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=74419332014 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=744 CERNE application/pdf Universidade Federal de Lavras CERNE (Brasil) Num.3 Vol.17 |
| title | Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions |
| topic | Agrociencias Forest economics investment analysis risk and uncertainty |
| url | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=74419332014 |