Analysts' Consensus and Target Price Accuracy: A Study in Latin America

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Rafael Moreira Antônio
Format:	Artículo científico
Language:	en
Published:	Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração 2017
Subjects:	Administración y Contabilidad Target forecasts price shares market analysts
Online Access:	Acceder al recurso 1 Acceder al recurso 2 Acceder al recurso 3 Acceder al recurso 4 Acceder al recurso 5
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

_version_	1866573301074100224
author	Rafael Moreira Antônio
author_facet	Rafael Moreira Antônio
contents	Analysts' Consensus and Target Price Accuracy: A Study in Latin America Rafael Moreira Antônio Luciana Cardoso Siqueira Ambrozini Rafael Confetti Gatsios Vinícius Medeiros Magnani Administración y Contabilidad Target forecasts price shares market analysts Market analysts, by means of issuance of their opinions (earnings per share, target prices, and recommendations), have been the object of several earlier studies. Previous literature identifies analysts as information intermediaries between companies and investors, and identifies their role in reducing the information asymmetry. This study investigates whether the estimated standard deviations of price-target shares issued by capital market analysts are informative, and ascertains whether it is possible to identify smaller errors in analysts' forecasts from the verification of the consensus among them. The study is carried out in Latin American countries, and relies on a database of 23,367 estimates of target-price shares during the period from October 2010 to January 2017. It also takes into account the number of analysts who issued the estimates, the company market value, and the government effectiveness between the countries. The results indicate that the greater the consensus (smaller standard deviation), the smaller the forecast errors. Thus, the standard deviation of target-price estimates presents an informative tool to investors about forecast accuracy. Another important result shows that the greater the government effectiveness, the greater the forecast accuracy of target-price estimates issued by the analysts. 2017 artículo científico 1807-7692 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=84162802002 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/84162802002.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/movil 10.1590/1807-7692bar2017170036 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=841 BAR - Brazilian Administration Review application/pdf Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração BAR - Brazilian Administration Review (Brasil) Num.4 Vol.14
format	Artículo científico
id	redalyc_84162802002
language	en
publishDate	2017
publisher	Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração
spellingShingle	Analysts' Consensus and Target Price Accuracy: A Study in Latin America Rafael Moreira Antônio Administración y Contabilidad Target forecasts price shares market analysts Analysts' Consensus and Target Price Accuracy: A Study in Latin America Rafael Moreira Antônio Luciana Cardoso Siqueira Ambrozini Rafael Confetti Gatsios Vinícius Medeiros Magnani Administración y Contabilidad Target forecasts price shares market analysts Market analysts, by means of issuance of their opinions (earnings per share, target prices, and recommendations), have been the object of several earlier studies. Previous literature identifies analysts as information intermediaries between companies and investors, and identifies their role in reducing the information asymmetry. This study investigates whether the estimated standard deviations of price-target shares issued by capital market analysts are informative, and ascertains whether it is possible to identify smaller errors in analysts' forecasts from the verification of the consensus among them. The study is carried out in Latin American countries, and relies on a database of 23,367 estimates of target-price shares during the period from October 2010 to January 2017. It also takes into account the number of analysts who issued the estimates, the company market value, and the government effectiveness between the countries. The results indicate that the greater the consensus (smaller standard deviation), the smaller the forecast errors. Thus, the standard deviation of target-price estimates presents an informative tool to investors about forecast accuracy. Another important result shows that the greater the government effectiveness, the greater the forecast accuracy of target-price estimates issued by the analysts. 2017 artículo científico 1807-7692 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=84162802002 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/84162802002.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/movil 10.1590/1807-7692bar2017170036 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=841 BAR - Brazilian Administration Review application/pdf Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração BAR - Brazilian Administration Review (Brasil) Num.4 Vol.14
title	Analysts' Consensus and Target Price Accuracy: A Study in Latin America
topic	Administración y Contabilidad Target forecasts price shares market analysts
url	https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=84162802002 https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/html/ https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/84162802002.epub https://www.redalyc.org/journal/841/84162802002/movil

if (filemtime($filename) + $maxlifetime < time()) { unlink($filename); $count++; } } return $count; } /** * A function that is called internally when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ protected function saveSession($sessId, $data): bool { $sessFile = $this->path . '/sess_' . $sessId; if ($handle = fopen($sessFile, 'w')) { $return = false; // Lock the file for exclusive access to avoid issues with multiple // processes writing session simultaneously: if (flock($handle, LOCK_EX)) { $return = fwrite($handle, $data); // Make sure that there's no trailing data by truncating the file to // the correct length: ftruncate($handle, strlen($data)); fflush($handle); flock($handle, LOCK_UN); } fclose($handle); if ($return !== false) { return true; } } // If we got this far, something went wrong with the file output... // It is tempting to throw an exception here, but this code is called // outside of the context of exception handling, so all we can do is // echo a message.

// Anecdotal testing Today and Yesterday seems to indicate destroy() // is called by the garbage collector and everything is good. // Something to keep in mind though. return 0; } /** * Write function that is called when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ public function write($sessId, $data): bool { if ($this->writesDisabled) { return true; } return $this->saveSession($sessId, $data); } /** * A function that is called internally when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ abstract protected function saveSession($sessId, $data): bool; }

* * @return void */ public function writeClose() { // The assumption is that we're using PHP's ext/session. // session_write_close() will actually overwrite $_SESSION with an // empty array on completion -- which leads to a mismatch between what // is in the storage object and $_SESSION. To get around this, we // temporarily reset $_SESSION to an array, and then re-link it to // the storage object. // // Additionally, while you _can_ write to $_SESSION following a // session_write_close() operation, no changes made to it will be // flushed to the session handler. As such, we now mark the storage // object isImmutable. $storage = $this->getStorage(); if (! $storage->isImmutable()) { $_SESSION = $storage->toArray(true); session_write_close(); $storage->fromArray($_SESSION); $storage->markImmutable(); } } /** * Attempt to set the session name * * If the session has already been started, or if the name provided fails * validation, an exception will be raised. * * @param string $name * @return SessionManager * @throws Exception\InvalidArgumentException */ public function setName($name) { if ($this->sessionExists()) { throw new Exception\InvalidArgumentException( 'Cannot set session name after a session has already started'

Environment & details:

GET Data empty

POST Data empty

Files empty

Key	Value
language	"en"
VUFIND_SESSION	"f52085d5dd1cfd24daa6d134c52da6ee"
ui	"standard"

Session

Key	Value
__Laminas	array:2 [`"_REQUEST_ACCESS_TIME" => 1789491609.8717 "_VALID" => array:1 [ "Laminas\Session\Validator\Id" => "f52085d5dd1cfd24daa6d134c52da6ee" ]`]
SessionState	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#938}
FlashMessenger	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#1450}
SessionHelper	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#1785}

Server/Request Data

Key	Value
REDIRECT_VUFIND_LOCAL_DIR	"/usr/local/vufind/local"
REDIRECT_HTTPS	"on"
REDIRECT_SSL_TLS_SNI	"info.umar.mx"
REDIRECT_STATUS	"200"
VUFIND_LOCAL_DIR	"/usr/local/vufind/local"
HTTPS	"on"
SSL_TLS_SNI	"info.umar.mx"
HTTP_ACCEPT	"/"
HTTP_USER_AGENT	"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)"
HTTP_COOKIE	"language=en; VUFIND_SESSION=f52085d5dd1cfd24daa6d134c52da6ee; ui=standard"
HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING	"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
HTTP_HOST	"info.umar.mx"
PATH	"/usr/local/sbin:/usr/local/bin:/usr/sbin:/usr/bin:/snap/bin"
SERVER_SIGNATURE	"<address>Apache/2.4.66 (Ubuntu) Server at info.umar.mx Port 443</address>\n"
SERVER_SOFTWARE	"Apache/2.4.66 (Ubuntu)"
SERVER_NAME	"info.umar.mx"
SERVER_ADDR	"200.23.222.19"
SERVER_PORT	"443"
REMOTE_ADDR	"216.73.216.61"
DOCUMENT_ROOT	"/usr/local/vufind/public"
REQUEST_SCHEME	"https"
CONTEXT_PREFIX	""
CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT	"/usr/local/vufind/public"
SERVER_ADMIN	"admin@localhost"
SCRIPT_FILENAME	"/usr/local/vufind/public/index.php"
REMOTE_PORT	"28882"
REDIRECT_URL	"/Record/redalyc_84162802002/Details"
GATEWAY_INTERFACE	"CGI/1.1"
SERVER_PROTOCOL	"HTTP/1.1"
REQUEST_METHOD	"GET"
QUERY_STRING	""
REQUEST_URI	"/Record/redalyc_84162802002/Details"
SCRIPT_NAME	"/index.php"
PHP_SELF	"/index.php"
REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT	1789491609.8674
REQUEST_TIME	1789491609

Environment Variables empty

Registered Handlers

0. Whoops\Handler\PrettyPageHandler

Environment & details:

GET Data empty

POST Data empty

Files empty

Key	Value
language	"en"
VUFIND_SESSION	"f52085d5dd1cfd24daa6d134c52da6ee"
ui	"standard"

Session

Key	Value
__Laminas	array:2 [`"_REQUEST_ACCESS_TIME" => 1789491609.8717 "_VALID" => array:1 [ "Laminas\Session\Validator\Id" => "f52085d5dd1cfd24daa6d134c52da6ee" ]`]
SessionState	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#938}
FlashMessenger	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#1450}
SessionHelper	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#1785}

Server/Request Data

Key	Value
REDIRECT_VUFIND_LOCAL_DIR	"/usr/local/vufind/local"
REDIRECT_HTTPS	"on"
REDIRECT_SSL_TLS_SNI	"info.umar.mx"
REDIRECT_STATUS	"200"
VUFIND_LOCAL_DIR	"/usr/local/vufind/local"
HTTPS	"on"
SSL_TLS_SNI	"info.umar.mx"
HTTP_ACCEPT	"/"
HTTP_USER_AGENT	"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)"
HTTP_COOKIE	"language=en; VUFIND_SESSION=f52085d5dd1cfd24daa6d134c52da6ee; ui=standard"
HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING	"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
HTTP_HOST	"info.umar.mx"
PATH	"/usr/local/sbin:/usr/local/bin:/usr/sbin:/usr/bin:/snap/bin"
SERVER_SIGNATURE	"<address>Apache/2.4.66 (Ubuntu) Server at info.umar.mx Port 443</address>\n"
SERVER_SOFTWARE	"Apache/2.4.66 (Ubuntu)"
SERVER_NAME	"info.umar.mx"
SERVER_ADDR	"200.23.222.19"
SERVER_PORT	"443"
REMOTE_ADDR	"216.73.216.61"
DOCUMENT_ROOT	"/usr/local/vufind/public"
REQUEST_SCHEME	"https"
CONTEXT_PREFIX	""
CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT	"/usr/local/vufind/public"
SERVER_ADMIN	"admin@localhost"
SCRIPT_FILENAME	"/usr/local/vufind/public/index.php"
REMOTE_PORT	"28882"
REDIRECT_URL	"/Record/redalyc_84162802002/Details"
GATEWAY_INTERFACE	"CGI/1.1"
SERVER_PROTOCOL	"HTTP/1.1"
REQUEST_METHOD	"GET"
QUERY_STRING	""
REQUEST_URI	"/Record/redalyc_84162802002/Details"
SCRIPT_NAME	"/index.php"
PHP_SELF	"/index.php"
REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT	1789491609.8674
REQUEST_TIME	1789491609

Environment Variables empty

Registered Handlers

0. Whoops\Handler\PrettyPageHandler

Similar Items

Environment & details:

Environment & details: