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| Format: | Artículo científico |
| Language: | en |
| Published: |
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
2002
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| Online Access: | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=89925106 |
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Table of Contents:
- Stochastic Modelling of Monthly Sun Bright in Coffee Growing Areas Bernardo Chaves Física, Astronomía y Matemáticas ARIMA sun bright time series stochastic model Autorregressive integrated moving average models ARIMA, were adjustedto series of monthly sun bright for 32 meteorological stations ofThe National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia. The structureof the adjusted models was ARIMA(0; 1; 1) ¤ (0; 1; 1)12 this is a movingaverage with a seasonality component each 12 month, the estimatedparameters were sufficient to describe the behavior of the series, theywere statistically different from zero and non correlated. The estimatedforecasts were found very approximated to observed values, they are actualizedmonthly, this characteristic allow to readjust the model whenthe pattern series change and to plan activities related with absorptionof solar energy. The greatest forecast error was 23% and it is consideredacceptable 2002 artículo científico 0120-1751 https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=89925106 en http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=899 Revista Colombiana de Estadística application/pdf Universidad Nacional de Colombia Revista Colombiana de Estadística (Colombia) Num.1 Vol.25