Towards a Sustainable Growth of the Shipping Sector—A Systematic Review of Future Shipping Emissions Scenarios
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Wiley
2024
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| author | Rafael A. O. Nunes Maria C. M. Alvim‐Ferraz Fernando G. Martins Sofia I. V. Sousa |
| author_facet | Rafael A. O. Nunes Maria C. M. Alvim‐Ferraz Fernando G. Martins Sofia I. V. Sousa Rafael A. O. Nunes Maria C. M. Alvim‐Ferraz Fernando G. Martins Sofia I. V. Sousa |
| collection | Wiley Open Access |
| contents | Towards a Sustainable Growth of the Shipping Sector—A Systematic Review of Future Shipping Emissions Scenarios Rafael A. O. Nunes Maria C. M. Alvim‐Ferraz Fernando G. Martins Sofia I. V. Sousa Sustainable Development ABSTRACT The demand for transport could be tripling by 2050, and it is expected that the increase in shipping demand will be even larger. Considering this, it is important to forecast the evolution of ship emissions in the coming decades and estimate their impacts on air quality, health and climate as reliably as possible. Thus, this study aimed to perform a systematic review considering studies where future shipping emissions scenarios have been established and studies that used future shipping emissions scenarios to assess future impacts on air quality and/or health and on climate. The 26 studies reviewed were performed mainly for the Arctic, Baltic and North Seas regions and Asia. Most authors reported a general decrease in SO x , NO x and PM 2.5 concentrations (and consequent health impacts where applicable) and in the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen species due to the NO x and SO x emission regulations. In contrast, the authors reported that the current regulatory energy efficiency policies might not compensate for the increase in traffic and the resulting CO 2 emissions. The health effects of future ship‐related emissions were rarely reported. Moreover, based on considerations of studies across the globe, future studies should adopt a holistic approach that integrates, besides what was already explored, detailed traffic growth assumptions, alternative fuels and technologies (LNG, scrubbers and shore electricity), economic factors and more reliable methods to forecast the future activity of the ships. 10.1002/sd.3291 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/sd.3291 |
| format | Artículo Open Access |
| id | wiley_oa_10_1002_sd_3291 |
| institution | Wiley Open Access |
| license_str_mv | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | wiley_oa |
| spellingShingle | Towards a Sustainable Growth of the Shipping Sector—A Systematic Review of Future Shipping Emissions Scenarios Rafael A. O. Nunes Maria C. M. Alvim‐Ferraz Fernando G. Martins Sofia I. V. Sousa Sustainable Development Towards a Sustainable Growth of the Shipping Sector—A Systematic Review of Future Shipping Emissions Scenarios Rafael A. O. Nunes Maria C. M. Alvim‐Ferraz Fernando G. Martins Sofia I. V. Sousa Sustainable Development ABSTRACT The demand for transport could be tripling by 2050, and it is expected that the increase in shipping demand will be even larger. Considering this, it is important to forecast the evolution of ship emissions in the coming decades and estimate their impacts on air quality, health and climate as reliably as possible. Thus, this study aimed to perform a systematic review considering studies where future shipping emissions scenarios have been established and studies that used future shipping emissions scenarios to assess future impacts on air quality and/or health and on climate. The 26 studies reviewed were performed mainly for the Arctic, Baltic and North Seas regions and Asia. Most authors reported a general decrease in SO x , NO x and PM 2.5 concentrations (and consequent health impacts where applicable) and in the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen species due to the NO x and SO x emission regulations. In contrast, the authors reported that the current regulatory energy efficiency policies might not compensate for the increase in traffic and the resulting CO 2 emissions. The health effects of future ship‐related emissions were rarely reported. Moreover, based on considerations of studies across the globe, future studies should adopt a holistic approach that integrates, besides what was already explored, detailed traffic growth assumptions, alternative fuels and technologies (LNG, scrubbers and shore electricity), economic factors and more reliable methods to forecast the future activity of the ships. 10.1002/sd.3291 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
| title | Towards a Sustainable Growth of the Shipping Sector—A Systematic Review of Future Shipping Emissions Scenarios |
| topic | Sustainable Development |
| url | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sd.3291 |