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| Natura: | Artículo Open Access |
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Wiley
2026
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| Accesso online: | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/echo.70388 |
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| _version_ | 1867014814063132673 |
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| author | Edmund K. Kerut Ronald Horswell Adebamike Oshunbade Michael E. Hall Filip To Ervin Fox Michael R. McMullan Kenneth R. Butler |
| author_facet | Edmund K. Kerut Ronald Horswell Adebamike Oshunbade Michael E. Hall Filip To Ervin Fox Michael R. McMullan Kenneth R. Butler Edmund K. Kerut Ronald Horswell Adebamike Oshunbade Michael E. Hall Filip To Ervin Fox Michael R. McMullan Kenneth R. Butler |
| collection | Wiley Open Access |
| contents | Predictive Models of a Future Coronary Artery Calcium Score in a Black Cohort: The GENOA Study Edmund K. Kerut Ronald Horswell Adebamike Oshunbade Michael E. Hall Filip To Ervin Fox Michael R. McMullan Kenneth R. Butler Echocardiography ABSTRACT Objective This retrospective study of a Black cohort sought to create predictive models to calculate the probability of a coronary artery calcium score (CACS) about one decade after obtaining cardiovascular risk measures. Study Design and Setting Participants ( n = 656) in GENOA had CV risk variables measured (1995–2000) and a CACS about one decade later (2009–2011). Using multivariate regression, computer models were written to calculate the probability of a future CACS of zero, ≥ 10, and ≥ 100. ROC values were 0.78, 0.77, and 0.76, respectively. Machine learning models did not perform any better than multivariate regression. Results Age, height, smoking duration, sex, and hypertension were significant for all three models in predicting a future CACS. Height was inversely related to future CACS, but weight and BMI were not contributory to the models. Lipid‐lowering medications and exercise were associated with an increased CACS, the so‐called CACS “paradox.” Conclusion Predictive models of a future CACS such as these may help in identifying important risk factors for a future CACS. By identifying these risk factors and implementing early modification of CV risk factors, the development of CV disease may be slowed. 10.1111/echo.70388 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/echo.70388 |
| format | Artículo Open Access |
| id | wiley_oa_10_1111_echo_70388 |
| institution | Wiley Open Access |
| license_str_mv | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | wiley_oa |
| spellingShingle | Predictive Models of a Future Coronary Artery Calcium Score in a Black Cohort: The GENOA Study Edmund K. Kerut Ronald Horswell Adebamike Oshunbade Michael E. Hall Filip To Ervin Fox Michael R. McMullan Kenneth R. Butler Echocardiography Predictive Models of a Future Coronary Artery Calcium Score in a Black Cohort: The GENOA Study Edmund K. Kerut Ronald Horswell Adebamike Oshunbade Michael E. Hall Filip To Ervin Fox Michael R. McMullan Kenneth R. Butler Echocardiography ABSTRACT Objective This retrospective study of a Black cohort sought to create predictive models to calculate the probability of a coronary artery calcium score (CACS) about one decade after obtaining cardiovascular risk measures. Study Design and Setting Participants ( n = 656) in GENOA had CV risk variables measured (1995–2000) and a CACS about one decade later (2009–2011). Using multivariate regression, computer models were written to calculate the probability of a future CACS of zero, ≥ 10, and ≥ 100. ROC values were 0.78, 0.77, and 0.76, respectively. Machine learning models did not perform any better than multivariate regression. Results Age, height, smoking duration, sex, and hypertension were significant for all three models in predicting a future CACS. Height was inversely related to future CACS, but weight and BMI were not contributory to the models. Lipid‐lowering medications and exercise were associated with an increased CACS, the so‐called CACS “paradox.” Conclusion Predictive models of a future CACS such as these may help in identifying important risk factors for a future CACS. By identifying these risk factors and implementing early modification of CV risk factors, the development of CV disease may be slowed. 10.1111/echo.70388 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
| title | Predictive Models of a Future Coronary Artery Calcium Score in a Black Cohort: The GENOA Study |
| topic | Echocardiography |
| url | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/echo.70388 |