Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Zenodo
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15001628 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866902028771393536 |
|---|---|
| author | Specq, Damien Li, Shan Batté, Lauriane |
| author_facet | Specq, Damien Li, Shan Batté, Lauriane |
| contents | <p>Work package 4 of C3S2_MF_370 proposes to design a new tool for the interpretation of multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts, consisting in a confidence index to be included whenever a new real-time forecast is issued (Task 4.3). The aim of the confidence index is to provide an a priori estimation of how correct the forecast will be against the verifying observations. The focus is set on European climate, defined by average near-surface temperature and accumulated precipitation over the next season, and the corresponding atmospheric circulation. This tool is intended to bring additional information in the preparation of the real-time seasonal forecast bulletins at Météo-France, and will be experimented shortly. This deliverable is the final document for Task 4.3. It is a follow-up of the intermediate milestone M4.3.1 issued in June 2023: while M4.3.1 is mostly focusing on confidence in a forecast of a single parameter such as a grid-point value, the present report elaborates on a confidence index for the spatial patterns of forecast anomalies over Europe.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_15001628 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | A priori confidence index for seasonal forecasts Specq, Damien Li, Shan Batté, Lauriane Seasonal forecasting Ensemble prediction Confidence index Windows of opportunity <p>Work package 4 of C3S2_MF_370 proposes to design a new tool for the interpretation of multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts, consisting in a confidence index to be included whenever a new real-time forecast is issued (Task 4.3). The aim of the confidence index is to provide an a priori estimation of how correct the forecast will be against the verifying observations. The focus is set on European climate, defined by average near-surface temperature and accumulated precipitation over the next season, and the corresponding atmospheric circulation. This tool is intended to bring additional information in the preparation of the real-time seasonal forecast bulletins at Météo-France, and will be experimented shortly. This deliverable is the final document for Task 4.3. It is a follow-up of the intermediate milestone M4.3.1 issued in June 2023: while M4.3.1 is mostly focusing on confidence in a forecast of a single parameter such as a grid-point value, the present report elaborates on a confidence index for the spatial patterns of forecast anomalies over Europe.</p> |
| title | A priori confidence index for seasonal forecasts |
| topic | Seasonal forecasting Ensemble prediction Confidence index Windows of opportunity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15001628 |