Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Sprache: | Chinesisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Zenodo
2025
|
| Online-Zugang: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15282119 |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
Inhaltsangabe:
- <div>This paper studies the optimal monetary and fiscal policies for stabilizing business</div> <div>cycles driven by persistent total factor productivity (TFP) growth shocks. The demand</div> <div>of forward-looking households, so-called intertemporal optimizers, is identified as the pri</div> <div>mary source of instability, leading to supply-demand imbalances and procyclical inflation</div> <div>volatility. The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies shifts endogenously across dif</div> <div>ferent phases of TFP growth, with their impacts contingent on the prior implementation</div> <div>of the other policy. The paper demonstrates that policymakers, within a commitment</div> <div>framework, can achieve both inflation stability and full employment through a combina</div> <div>tion of adjusting interest rates and government spendings. The findings are then applied</div> <div>to evaluate the welfare effects of China’s macroeconomic policies during the 2003-2017</div> <div>growth cycle.</div> <div> </div> <div> <div>本文研究了如何通过最优财政与货币政策组合应对持续性全要素</div> <div>生产率(Total Factor Productivity, TFP)增速冲击所驱动的经济周期波动。</div> <div>理论分析部分表明,以前瞻性跨期优化为决策基础的经济主体需求构成了经</div> <div>济不稳定的根源,引发供需错配并加剧通胀率的顺周期波动。财政与货币政策的</div> <div>有效性随 TFP 增长阶段而呈现内生性的动态转换,且任一政策的效果均显著依赖</div> <div>于另一政策的先行实施情况。在承诺(full commitment)的宏观政策框架下,决</div> <div>策者可以通过协同调整利率与政府支出,同步实现通胀稳定与充分就业的目标。</div> <div>在数量分析部分,本文选取 2003—2017 年中国 TFP 增速“加速—停滞”的</div> <div>完整周期作为案例,系统比较了理论模型推演的拉姆齐最优政策与现实政策,不</div> <div>仅识别了二者的偏离,还基于当时的宏观经济数据分析这些偏离对经济的实际影</div> <div>响,评估了现实政策的福利效果。以史为鉴,将宏观经济政策理论与中国商业周</div> <div>期的历史数据紧密结合开展研究,所获得的结论将为我国应对新一轮增长周期提</div> <div>供科学决策的学理依据。</div> </div>