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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Zenodo
2025
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16811772 |
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Table of Contents:
- <h1>About this document</h1> <p>This report presents the evaluation of tropical cyclone representation in SR-ESMs.</p> <h1>Work package in charge</h1> <p>WP7</p> <h1>Executive summary</h1> <p>It is anticipated that global storm-resolving models will simulate realistic tropical cyclones (TC), but sensitivities to resolution, coupling, and model physics (such as treatment of deep convection) are yet to be quantified. Additionally, km-scale models open opportunities to study key processes in cyclone development, including interactions with the near-surface ocean. This report compiles key findings on the topic of tropical cyclones. nextGEMS simulations show good qualitative agreement with observations in terms of the total TC frequency and the seasonality globally, although biases exist in particular basins. nextGEMS models capture realistic intensification rates, including rapid intensification, which remains challenging even in initialised forecasts, and this is sensitive to whether or not deep convection is parameterised. The simulated relationship<br>between intensification rate and cyclone inner-core size resembles the observed relationship, indicating that GSRMs may help understand what role, if any, size has in determining intensification rate. Cyclones interacting with cold-core eddies exhibit significantly lower intensities and intensification rates, but TCs encountering warm-core eddies tend to show higher intensities and intensification rates. Under SSP3-7.0, frequency changes of TCs up to category-four-equivalent intensity are small, but TCs with peak intensities of at least 50 ms−1 (equivalent to category five) exhibit a marked increase in frequency. This result is qualitatively similar to existing findings, but<br>greater confidence may be drawn here, as nextGEMS explicitly resolve the strongest intensities. Under warming, nextGEMS models project stronger western North Pacific TCs and altered TCrainfall patterns, particularly a delay in peak TC precipitation. It will be important to build on this result in future work to explore sensitivities to model physics as well as alternative scenarios. The impact of ocean spin-up on basin-scale and global TC activity warrants further investigation to first address the issue of short spin-up affecting weaker TC frequency and second to address the potential impact on climate projections.</p>