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2025
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17337308 |
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| author | Bhusal, Manoj |
| author_facet | Bhusal, Manoj |
| contents | <p>This study examines India’s involvement in Nepal’s peace process and political transition in the post-conflict era. The period of examination primarily focuses on, but is not strictly confined to, the years between 2005 and 2017. This timeframe marks a pivotal chapter in Nepal's history, characterised by transformative events such as the 2006 pro-democracy uprising (<em>Jana Andolan II</em>), the resolution of a decade-long Maoist insurgency that claimed over 17,000 lives, the abolition of the 240-year-old monarchy, the promulgation of a new constitution, and Nepal's transition from a unitary Hindu monarchy to a secular federal democratic republic. As the nascent republic navigated a series of political avalanches in the post-conflict transition, India was heavily involved in Nepal<strong>—</strong>often exhibiting a complex character, transmitting both assistance and assertion. </p> <p><span> </span>Although India’s role in Nepal’s peace process and political transition is widely recognised, the specifics of its involvement, such as its facilitation of the 12-Point Understanding, remain unclear. This study addresses that gap by offering an in-depth analysis of India's role in Nepal’s political turmoil during the mid-2000s and its subsequent engagement in post-conflict Nepal. In doing so, it also provides a broader and critical re-evaluation of India–Nepal relations. While not the primary objective, the study also identifies and discusses key lessons from Nepal’s peace process and political transition.<span> </span></p> <p><span> </span>This study employs a three-layered theoretical framework, integrating concepts from peace and mediation research, critical international relations, and global development studies. The first layer examines peace mediation as a foreign policy tool, analysing mediators’ motives alongside the concepts of ‘power mediators’ and ‘pure mediators’. The second layer explores rising power behaviour, the paradoxes of South–South Cooperation, and the harsh realities of contemporary sub-imperialism. Lastly, world-systems theory and dependency concepts provide a broader historical and economic perspective, serving as effective reference points for conducting a thorough analysis of India–Nepal relations.</p> <p><span> </span>Methodologically, the study is rooted in critical realism and employs a single case study design. Data were collected from multiple sources, including semi-structured key informant interviews (n=18, 982 minutes), media materials (n=105, 750 pages), and video interviews and speeches (n=12, 360 minutes). Using an inductive approach based on grounded theory, the data were analysed using the qualitative content analysis method.</p> <p><span> </span>By analysing a series of political events in Nepal from as early as 2001, the study concludes that while India’s facilitative role in the 12-Point Understanding was indeed helpful, it was Nepal’s internal political dynamics, coupled with a Mutually Enticing Opportunity (MEO), that ultimately initiated the peace process. However, India was successful in portraying itself as a peace broker and in leveraging that narrative to strengthen its influence in post-conflict Nepal. During the post-conflict political transition, Indian influence grew significantly, as did Nepal’s dependency on India, with India actively intervening and micromanaging Nepal’s political affairs.</p> <p><span> </span>India consolidated its influence over Nepal's political, bureaucratic, and security institutions through a combination of soft and hard power strategies. This created a state of ‘peace dependency,’ where Nepali political actors became heavily reliant on India to resolve even mundane political stalemates and maintain post-conflict stability. However, in the later stages of the political transition, Nepal strongly challenged and resisted India’s hard power tactics, including coercive diplomacy and economic blockade, and demonstrated significant resistance to external domination.</p> <p><span> </span>This study situates India's involvement in Nepal's peace process and political transition within a sub-imperialist framework and as rooted in a historically complex relationship marked by both cooperation and conflict. Analysing India’s long-term engagement in Nepal reveals its intent to transform Nepal into a sub-imperialist domain. India seeks to gain control over Nepal's natural resources—particularly water—and promote a world system based on neoliberal capitalism and various forms of aggression. While India has gradually entrapped Nepal in a web of dependencies, its own relationship with global financial institutions and Western powers, particularly the United States, exhibits similar dependency traits. Furthermore, India’s preoccupation with regional sub-imperialism is intertwined with its inclination for internal colonialism at home and its fixation with the Hindu-nationalist Hindutva ideology.</p> <p><span> </span>This study offers fresh insights into rising power behaviour by critically examining India’s engagement in post-conflict Nepal. It challenges the assumption that the economic and political ascendance of a select few countries from the Global South paves the way for a more equitable world order. Instead, it demonstrates how these so-called rising powers engage with their less powerful neighbours, often cloaking their actions in the rhetoric of collective emancipation or South–South Cooperation (SSC). However, in practice, they frequently adopt extractivist and oppressive policies that perpetuate and reinforce unequal power relations. This undermines the long-cherished aspirations of particularly smaller and less powerful developing countries for a fairer and more equitable global order.</p> <p><span> </span>The study concludes with a critique of Nepal's peace and political transition process, acknowledging its notable achievements while highlighting critical shortcomings, such as the lack of an effective transitional justice framework and the failure to implement impactful socio-economic reforms. These findings provide valuable lessons for future peace processes in comparable contexts and contribute to the broader discourse on international mediation, post-conflict reconstruction, South–South relations, and the pressing issues of regional power rivalries and a shifting world order.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Nepal peace process, India–Nepal relations, South Asian geopolitics, sub-imperialism, South–South Cooperation, rising power behaviour, critical realism, case study </p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_17337308 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Mediation, Meddling, and Micromanagement: India in Nepal's Peace Process and Political Transition Bhusal, Manoj <p>This study examines India’s involvement in Nepal’s peace process and political transition in the post-conflict era. The period of examination primarily focuses on, but is not strictly confined to, the years between 2005 and 2017. This timeframe marks a pivotal chapter in Nepal's history, characterised by transformative events such as the 2006 pro-democracy uprising (<em>Jana Andolan II</em>), the resolution of a decade-long Maoist insurgency that claimed over 17,000 lives, the abolition of the 240-year-old monarchy, the promulgation of a new constitution, and Nepal's transition from a unitary Hindu monarchy to a secular federal democratic republic. As the nascent republic navigated a series of political avalanches in the post-conflict transition, India was heavily involved in Nepal<strong>—</strong>often exhibiting a complex character, transmitting both assistance and assertion. </p> <p><span> </span>Although India’s role in Nepal’s peace process and political transition is widely recognised, the specifics of its involvement, such as its facilitation of the 12-Point Understanding, remain unclear. This study addresses that gap by offering an in-depth analysis of India's role in Nepal’s political turmoil during the mid-2000s and its subsequent engagement in post-conflict Nepal. In doing so, it also provides a broader and critical re-evaluation of India–Nepal relations. While not the primary objective, the study also identifies and discusses key lessons from Nepal’s peace process and political transition.<span> </span></p> <p><span> </span>This study employs a three-layered theoretical framework, integrating concepts from peace and mediation research, critical international relations, and global development studies. The first layer examines peace mediation as a foreign policy tool, analysing mediators’ motives alongside the concepts of ‘power mediators’ and ‘pure mediators’. The second layer explores rising power behaviour, the paradoxes of South–South Cooperation, and the harsh realities of contemporary sub-imperialism. Lastly, world-systems theory and dependency concepts provide a broader historical and economic perspective, serving as effective reference points for conducting a thorough analysis of India–Nepal relations.</p> <p><span> </span>Methodologically, the study is rooted in critical realism and employs a single case study design. Data were collected from multiple sources, including semi-structured key informant interviews (n=18, 982 minutes), media materials (n=105, 750 pages), and video interviews and speeches (n=12, 360 minutes). Using an inductive approach based on grounded theory, the data were analysed using the qualitative content analysis method.</p> <p><span> </span>By analysing a series of political events in Nepal from as early as 2001, the study concludes that while India’s facilitative role in the 12-Point Understanding was indeed helpful, it was Nepal’s internal political dynamics, coupled with a Mutually Enticing Opportunity (MEO), that ultimately initiated the peace process. However, India was successful in portraying itself as a peace broker and in leveraging that narrative to strengthen its influence in post-conflict Nepal. During the post-conflict political transition, Indian influence grew significantly, as did Nepal’s dependency on India, with India actively intervening and micromanaging Nepal’s political affairs.</p> <p><span> </span>India consolidated its influence over Nepal's political, bureaucratic, and security institutions through a combination of soft and hard power strategies. This created a state of ‘peace dependency,’ where Nepali political actors became heavily reliant on India to resolve even mundane political stalemates and maintain post-conflict stability. However, in the later stages of the political transition, Nepal strongly challenged and resisted India’s hard power tactics, including coercive diplomacy and economic blockade, and demonstrated significant resistance to external domination.</p> <p><span> </span>This study situates India's involvement in Nepal's peace process and political transition within a sub-imperialist framework and as rooted in a historically complex relationship marked by both cooperation and conflict. Analysing India’s long-term engagement in Nepal reveals its intent to transform Nepal into a sub-imperialist domain. India seeks to gain control over Nepal's natural resources—particularly water—and promote a world system based on neoliberal capitalism and various forms of aggression. While India has gradually entrapped Nepal in a web of dependencies, its own relationship with global financial institutions and Western powers, particularly the United States, exhibits similar dependency traits. Furthermore, India’s preoccupation with regional sub-imperialism is intertwined with its inclination for internal colonialism at home and its fixation with the Hindu-nationalist Hindutva ideology.</p> <p><span> </span>This study offers fresh insights into rising power behaviour by critically examining India’s engagement in post-conflict Nepal. It challenges the assumption that the economic and political ascendance of a select few countries from the Global South paves the way for a more equitable world order. Instead, it demonstrates how these so-called rising powers engage with their less powerful neighbours, often cloaking their actions in the rhetoric of collective emancipation or South–South Cooperation (SSC). However, in practice, they frequently adopt extractivist and oppressive policies that perpetuate and reinforce unequal power relations. This undermines the long-cherished aspirations of particularly smaller and less powerful developing countries for a fairer and more equitable global order.</p> <p><span> </span>The study concludes with a critique of Nepal's peace and political transition process, acknowledging its notable achievements while highlighting critical shortcomings, such as the lack of an effective transitional justice framework and the failure to implement impactful socio-economic reforms. These findings provide valuable lessons for future peace processes in comparable contexts and contribute to the broader discourse on international mediation, post-conflict reconstruction, South–South relations, and the pressing issues of regional power rivalries and a shifting world order.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Nepal peace process, India–Nepal relations, South Asian geopolitics, sub-imperialism, South–South Cooperation, rising power behaviour, critical realism, case study </p> |
| title | Mediation, Meddling, and Micromanagement: India in Nepal's Peace Process and Political Transition |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17337308 |