Salvato in:
| Autore principale: | |
|---|---|
| Natura: | Recurso digital |
| Lingua: | inglese |
| Pubblicazione: |
Zenodo
2025
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| Accesso online: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17508746 |
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Sommario:
- <p><span>This paper presents a two-month empirical validation of the Potential Payback Period (PPP) and its derivative Stock Internal Rate of Return Including Price Appreciation (SIRRIPA). Although the PPP-SIRRIPA framework is theoretically optimized for 3–9-month horizons—long enough for fundamentals to reprice but short enough to maintain parameter relevance—we find statistically and economically extraordinary predictive performance over only two months.</span></p> <p><span>Using an independently archived ranking of 50 U.S. technology securities (SIRRIPA-based; published Sept. 11, 2025 at Zenodo: <a href="https://zenodo.org/records/17102390" target="_new"><span>https://zenodo.org/records/17102390</span></a>), we study realized price performance through Oct. 31, 2025. Top-ranked securities strongly outperformed laggard groups. The <strong>Top-10 securities returned +21.11% on average</strong>, while the <strong>Bottom-10 returned only +4.90%</strong>; excluding the outlier Robinhood Markets (HOOD), bottom-group performance falls to <strong>+0.89%</strong>, raising the predictive spread to <strong>+20.22 percentage points (pp)</strong>.</span></p> <p><span>Results are even stronger in the tails: the <strong>Top-5 outperformed the Bottom-5 by +35.43 pp</strong>, despite the extremely short horizon. This represents unusually fast gap-closure relative to typical fundamental repricing cycles, highlighting the model’s ability to identify under- and over-valued securities in real time. We conclude that the PPP–SIRRIPA methodology demonstrates strong short-term predictive power, likely reflecting compressed valuation adjustment dynamics in the September–October 2025 market environment.</span></p>