Preferential Taxation and the Retained Earnings Bias: A Premise-Conditions Theory

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Autor principal: STUDENT, By
Formato: Recurso digital
Publicado: Zenodo 2025
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author_facet STUDENT, By
contents <p>This paper formalizes a premise-conditions theory explaining why preferential tax incentives for large firms <br>(e.g., investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation) do not translate into domestic capital deepening or <br>wage growth but instead raise retained earnings and shareholder payouts. The mechanism hinges on cross-border <br>return differentials, governance priorities, and tax arbitrage constraints. We derive testable implications <br>and policy diagnostics under which GDP fails to increase while GNI and payouts rise. The model extends the <br>classical user cost of capital framework (Jorgenson, Hall-Jorgenson) by incorporating governance bias and <br>cross-border leakage, and is supported by empirical evidence from the United States, Japan, and Germany. <br>This work contributes to the institutional diagnosis of tax policy and proposes a standardized theoretical <br>framework for evaluating preferential taxation outcomes.</p>
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spellingShingle Preferential Taxation and the Retained Earnings Bias: A Premise-Conditions Theory
STUDENT, By
<p>This paper formalizes a premise-conditions theory explaining why preferential tax incentives for large firms <br>(e.g., investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation) do not translate into domestic capital deepening or <br>wage growth but instead raise retained earnings and shareholder payouts. The mechanism hinges on cross-border <br>return differentials, governance priorities, and tax arbitrage constraints. We derive testable implications <br>and policy diagnostics under which GDP fails to increase while GNI and payouts rise. The model extends the <br>classical user cost of capital framework (Jorgenson, Hall-Jorgenson) by incorporating governance bias and <br>cross-border leakage, and is supported by empirical evidence from the United States, Japan, and Germany. <br>This work contributes to the institutional diagnosis of tax policy and proposes a standardized theoretical <br>framework for evaluating preferential taxation outcomes.</p>
title Preferential Taxation and the Retained Earnings Bias: A Premise-Conditions Theory
url https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17705419