Preferential Taxation and the Retained Earnings Bias: A Premise-Conditions Theory
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2025
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| author | STUDENT, By |
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| contents | <p>This paper formalizes a premise-conditions theory explaining why preferential tax incentives for large firms (e.g., investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation) do not translate into domestic capital deepening or wage growth but instead raise retained earnings and shareholder payouts. The mechanism hinges on cross-border return differentials, governance priorities, and tax arbitrage constraints. We derive testable implications and policy diagnostics under which GDP fails to increase while GNI and payouts rise. The model extends the classical user cost of capital framework (Jorgenson, Hall-Jorgenson) by incorporating governance bias and cross-border leakage, and is supported by empirical evidence from the United States, Japan, and Germany. <br>This work contributes to the institutional diagnosis of tax policy and proposes a standardized theoretical framework for evaluating preferential taxation outcomes.</p> <p>To ensure global applicability, we extend the diagnostic framework into a standardized international filing regime. Firms applying for preferential tax treatment would be required to submit harmonized disclosure forms detailing domestic and foreign after‑tax return rates, retained earnings growth, and shareholder payout ratios. Refunds or credits would be granted only when inequality conditions demonstrate that domestic investment contributes positively to GDP rather than merely increasing GNI or retained earnings. All submitted data would be published in an open‑access repository, enabling independent verification by researchers, civil society, and international organizations. By embedding transparency and comparability, this regime transforms preferential taxation from a blanket subsidy into a conditional, evidence‑based instrument, aligning fiscal incentives with genuine national income growth and preventing recurrent policy failures.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_17705492 |
| institution | Zenodo |
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| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Preferential Taxation and the Retained Earnings Bias: A Premise-Conditions Theory STUDENT, By <p>This paper formalizes a premise-conditions theory explaining why preferential tax incentives for large firms (e.g., investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation) do not translate into domestic capital deepening or wage growth but instead raise retained earnings and shareholder payouts. The mechanism hinges on cross-border return differentials, governance priorities, and tax arbitrage constraints. We derive testable implications and policy diagnostics under which GDP fails to increase while GNI and payouts rise. The model extends the classical user cost of capital framework (Jorgenson, Hall-Jorgenson) by incorporating governance bias and cross-border leakage, and is supported by empirical evidence from the United States, Japan, and Germany. <br>This work contributes to the institutional diagnosis of tax policy and proposes a standardized theoretical framework for evaluating preferential taxation outcomes.</p> <p>To ensure global applicability, we extend the diagnostic framework into a standardized international filing regime. Firms applying for preferential tax treatment would be required to submit harmonized disclosure forms detailing domestic and foreign after‑tax return rates, retained earnings growth, and shareholder payout ratios. Refunds or credits would be granted only when inequality conditions demonstrate that domestic investment contributes positively to GDP rather than merely increasing GNI or retained earnings. All submitted data would be published in an open‑access repository, enabling independent verification by researchers, civil society, and international organizations. By embedding transparency and comparability, this regime transforms preferential taxation from a blanket subsidy into a conditional, evidence‑based instrument, aligning fiscal incentives with genuine national income growth and preventing recurrent policy failures.</p> |
| title | Preferential Taxation and the Retained Earnings Bias: A Premise-Conditions Theory |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17705492 |