| _version_ | 1866901043975028736 |
|---|---|
| author | Diallo, Fatoumata Johnson, James |
| author_facet | Diallo, Fatoumata Johnson, James |
| contents | <p dir="ltr"><span>Contemporary political science usually explains the persistence of extractive or “client” regimes in the Global South through institutional weakness, patronage networks, or path-dependent economics. This paper builds on a complementary psychological driver: the Imperial Selection Model (ISM). We hypothesise that, for roughly five centuries, Western imperial powers have applied an implicit personality filter to local intermediaries.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>We re-analyse a trans-historical dataset of 459 African, Asian, and Latin-American leaders (1482–2021), from Nsiangani’s </span><span>From Mvemba Nzinga to Modern Puppet States</span><span> (2016) and Kusimbiko’s </span><span>Economies of Obedience </span><span>(2018). Each leader is coded on four behavioural dimensions associated in the psychological literature with the “Dark Tetrad” (Machiavellianism, grandiose self-focus, affective detachment, and cruelty). Coding uses a structured archival instrument, the Puppet Diagnostic Index (PDI), based solely on documented actions rather than clinical diagnosis.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>A logistic regression predicting “Durable Western Alignment” (≥7 years of sustained external patronage coupled with major economic or strategic concessions) yields an AUC of 0.996. Leaders with high composite PDI scores almost always form long-lived Western-aligned regimes; low-score leaders tend to be overthrown, assassinated, or sanctioned. The model robustly distinguishes “Strategic Sovereigns” (e.g. Nzinga Mbande, Thomas Sankara), who combine political competence with retained in-group loyalty, from “Durable Clients” (e.g. Mobutu Sese Seko, King Ghezo), who exhibit the full PDI cluster.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>We conclude that what is often called “bad governance” functions as a successful adaptation to an external selection pressure that rewards instrumental ruthlessness toward one’s own population. Policy implications include the need for pre-electoral behavioural screening tools for civil society and for new protection mechanisms for high-competence, high-empathy leaders. Our contribution validates Kusimbiko’s ISM model.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>Keywords:</span><span> Dark Tetrad, imperial selection, political pathology, neocolonialism, Africa, archival psychometrics</span></p> <p> </p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_17881848 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | The Colonized Dark Tetrad as a Trans-Historical Predictor of Durable Western-Aligned Governance in Africa, 1482–2021 Diallo, Fatoumata Johnson, James <p dir="ltr"><span>Contemporary political science usually explains the persistence of extractive or “client” regimes in the Global South through institutional weakness, patronage networks, or path-dependent economics. This paper builds on a complementary psychological driver: the Imperial Selection Model (ISM). We hypothesise that, for roughly five centuries, Western imperial powers have applied an implicit personality filter to local intermediaries.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>We re-analyse a trans-historical dataset of 459 African, Asian, and Latin-American leaders (1482–2021), from Nsiangani’s </span><span>From Mvemba Nzinga to Modern Puppet States</span><span> (2016) and Kusimbiko’s </span><span>Economies of Obedience </span><span>(2018). Each leader is coded on four behavioural dimensions associated in the psychological literature with the “Dark Tetrad” (Machiavellianism, grandiose self-focus, affective detachment, and cruelty). Coding uses a structured archival instrument, the Puppet Diagnostic Index (PDI), based solely on documented actions rather than clinical diagnosis.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>A logistic regression predicting “Durable Western Alignment” (≥7 years of sustained external patronage coupled with major economic or strategic concessions) yields an AUC of 0.996. Leaders with high composite PDI scores almost always form long-lived Western-aligned regimes; low-score leaders tend to be overthrown, assassinated, or sanctioned. The model robustly distinguishes “Strategic Sovereigns” (e.g. Nzinga Mbande, Thomas Sankara), who combine political competence with retained in-group loyalty, from “Durable Clients” (e.g. Mobutu Sese Seko, King Ghezo), who exhibit the full PDI cluster.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>We conclude that what is often called “bad governance” functions as a successful adaptation to an external selection pressure that rewards instrumental ruthlessness toward one’s own population. Policy implications include the need for pre-electoral behavioural screening tools for civil society and for new protection mechanisms for high-competence, high-empathy leaders. Our contribution validates Kusimbiko’s ISM model.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>Keywords:</span><span> Dark Tetrad, imperial selection, political pathology, neocolonialism, Africa, archival psychometrics</span></p> <p> </p> |
| title | The Colonized Dark Tetrad as a Trans-Historical Predictor of Durable Western-Aligned Governance in Africa, 1482–2021 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17881848 |