| _version_ | 1866901174940073984 |
|---|---|
| author | Tirronen, Maria |
| author_facet | Tirronen, Maria |
| contents | <p>These codes estimate the average pre-fledging survival of teal, wigeon, and tufted duck in Finland during 1986–2024 by calibrating a demographic state-space model to long-term pair-index time series published by Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), combined with literature-based estimates of the remaining demographic parameters. The model is fitted in a Bayesian framework. The estimated pre-fledging survival rates are used to explore scenarios in which pre-fledging mortality is reduced, for example due to predator removal, and the resulting changes in population growth rate are examined. Finally, it is quantified how much pre-fledging mortality from predation would need to decrease, in theory and given current knowledge, to achieve population increase with a high probability.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_17973201 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Source code for modelling predation reduction thresholds in declining Finnish waterfowl Tirronen, Maria <p>These codes estimate the average pre-fledging survival of teal, wigeon, and tufted duck in Finland during 1986–2024 by calibrating a demographic state-space model to long-term pair-index time series published by Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), combined with literature-based estimates of the remaining demographic parameters. The model is fitted in a Bayesian framework. The estimated pre-fledging survival rates are used to explore scenarios in which pre-fledging mortality is reduced, for example due to predator removal, and the resulting changes in population growth rate are examined. Finally, it is quantified how much pre-fledging mortality from predation would need to decrease, in theory and given current knowledge, to achieve population increase with a high probability.</p> |
| title | Source code for modelling predation reduction thresholds in declining Finnish waterfowl |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17973201 |