From Regional Incentives to Federal Control: The Evolution of Russia's Mobilisation Model
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| Natura: | Recurso digital |
| Lingua: | inglese |
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Zenodo
2025
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| _version_ | 1866901043660455936 |
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| author | Khrabrykh, Sergei ARGA Observatory |
| author_facet | Khrabrykh, Sergei ARGA Observatory |
| contents | <p>This article argues that Russia’s mobilisation logic has not ended but has been structurally reconfigured. Rather than signalling de-escalation, recent cuts to regional recruitment payments reflect a shift away from a costly and unstable “regional recruitment market” toward a more centralised, less transparent, and more administratively managed system. Drawing on federal budget data, regional fiscal dynamics, and open-source assessments, the analysis shows that military spending remains a core federal priority, increasingly dispersed across multiple budget lines and concentrated within the defence and internal security bloc.</p> <p>The article demonstrates that regions are gradually losing their role as key financial drivers of recruitment due to mounting budgetary constraints, while the federal centre consolidates control over funding and management. This centralisation allows recruitment to continue without dependence on regional fiscal capacity and without competitive escalation of bonuses. The piece further situates these developments within a broader strategic context, arguing that such budgetary and institutional choices are characteristic of a system preparing for long-term confrontation rather than winding down military mobilisation.</p> <p>Finally, the article examines how this mobilisation model affects the risk environment for Europe. While not implying an inevitable escalation, it highlights how sustained militarisation, reduced transparency, and centralised recruitment increase Russia’s capacity to maintain prolonged pressure and, under certain political conditions, expand the spectrum of coercive actions beyond the current theatre of war.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18016882 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | From Regional Incentives to Federal Control: The Evolution of Russia's Mobilisation Model Khrabrykh, Sergei ARGA Observatory Mobilisation Military recruitement Internal security Military economy NATO <p>This article argues that Russia’s mobilisation logic has not ended but has been structurally reconfigured. Rather than signalling de-escalation, recent cuts to regional recruitment payments reflect a shift away from a costly and unstable “regional recruitment market” toward a more centralised, less transparent, and more administratively managed system. Drawing on federal budget data, regional fiscal dynamics, and open-source assessments, the analysis shows that military spending remains a core federal priority, increasingly dispersed across multiple budget lines and concentrated within the defence and internal security bloc.</p> <p>The article demonstrates that regions are gradually losing their role as key financial drivers of recruitment due to mounting budgetary constraints, while the federal centre consolidates control over funding and management. This centralisation allows recruitment to continue without dependence on regional fiscal capacity and without competitive escalation of bonuses. The piece further situates these developments within a broader strategic context, arguing that such budgetary and institutional choices are characteristic of a system preparing for long-term confrontation rather than winding down military mobilisation.</p> <p>Finally, the article examines how this mobilisation model affects the risk environment for Europe. While not implying an inevitable escalation, it highlights how sustained militarisation, reduced transparency, and centralised recruitment increase Russia’s capacity to maintain prolonged pressure and, under certain political conditions, expand the spectrum of coercive actions beyond the current theatre of war.</p> |
| title | From Regional Incentives to Federal Control: The Evolution of Russia's Mobilisation Model |
| topic | Mobilisation Military recruitement Internal security Military economy NATO |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18016882 |