Computational Macrohistory: Axiomatic Foundations for a Quantitative Science of Large-Scale Social Systems
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| Formato: | Recurso digital |
| Lenguaje: | inglés |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866902267864547328 |
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| author | Fontaise, Galen |
| author_facet | Fontaise, Galen |
| contents | <p>Computational Macrohistory (CMH) is proposed as a quantitative science that studies the temporal evolution of large-scale complex social systems through dynamic, probabilistic, and computational mathematical models. This document establishes the minimal, non-redundant set of axioms necessary for the discipline's foundation. Eight axioms (A1-A8) are formulated as admissibility constraints that any valid CMH model must satisfy, covering: statistical aggregation of collective behavior, conditioned historical ergodicity, structural causality, continuous temporal dynamics, endogenous indeterminacy, bounded reflexivity, predictive decay, and computational falsifiability. These axioms do not describe the world "as it is," but rather define the conditions under which historical systems become scientifically tractable. Any model that violates one of these axioms falls outside the domain of Computational Macrohistory. This framework positions CMH as an extension and formalization of cliodynamics, providing rigorous mathematical foundations for predictive historical analysis while explicitly acknowledging epistemological limits. A minimal toy model is provided to demonstrate that the axiom set is jointly satisfiable.</p> |
| format | Recurso digital |
| id | zenodo_https___doi_org_10_5281_zenodo_18288165 |
| institution | Zenodo |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | Zenodo |
| record_format | zenodo |
| spellingShingle | Computational Macrohistory: Axiomatic Foundations for a Quantitative Science of Large-Scale Social Systems Fontaise, Galen computational macrohistory cliodynamics complex systems social dynamics quantitative history structural causality nonlinear dynamics quantitative history <p>Computational Macrohistory (CMH) is proposed as a quantitative science that studies the temporal evolution of large-scale complex social systems through dynamic, probabilistic, and computational mathematical models. This document establishes the minimal, non-redundant set of axioms necessary for the discipline's foundation. Eight axioms (A1-A8) are formulated as admissibility constraints that any valid CMH model must satisfy, covering: statistical aggregation of collective behavior, conditioned historical ergodicity, structural causality, continuous temporal dynamics, endogenous indeterminacy, bounded reflexivity, predictive decay, and computational falsifiability. These axioms do not describe the world "as it is," but rather define the conditions under which historical systems become scientifically tractable. Any model that violates one of these axioms falls outside the domain of Computational Macrohistory. This framework positions CMH as an extension and formalization of cliodynamics, providing rigorous mathematical foundations for predictive historical analysis while explicitly acknowledging epistemological limits. A minimal toy model is provided to demonstrate that the axiom set is jointly satisfiable.</p> |
| title | Computational Macrohistory: Axiomatic Foundations for a Quantitative Science of Large-Scale Social Systems |
| topic | computational macrohistory cliodynamics complex systems social dynamics quantitative history structural causality nonlinear dynamics quantitative history |
| url | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18288165 |